There is no doubt that Europe with the crisis in Ukraine has strengthened above all on the strategies it shares with NATO, and has made the transatlantic link even more stable in what was perceived from the outset as a serious threat at the heart of Europe. On the other hand, as regards the strategy implemented so far to deal with the economic consequences of the conflict, especially on the energy side, there has not been the paradigm shift that has taken place following the pandemic.
Draghi’s former diplomatic advisor Mattiolo
Ambassador Luigi Mattiolo, Mario Draghi’s former diplomatic advisor, who spoke at a webinar organized by the 24Ore Business school, retraced all the main dossiers he dealt with during his stay at Palazzo Chigi. Certainly the result obtained at the end of the G20 in October 2021 is to be ascribed among the most relevant experiences of his mandate, like the preparation of the various international summits and the various “bilaterals”. Despite the resistance of China, India, Russia, Indonesia, “a climate agreement has been reached which provides for a ceiling of 1.5 degrees for global temperature growth and a fund of 100 billion for developing countries” . The summit “is the result of a team of 25 and 35 year olds, who have given me support in terms of skills, energy and enthusiasm. In short, he concluded, remaining closed in the Cloud of the EUR in Rome was a matter of tactics and negotiating work, which are the fulcrum of diplomatic work. There were moments in which I faltered, but the most difficult moment turned out to be the moment that gave me the most satisfaction”.
Price cap on the gas price
Mattiolo recalls how Italy was the first to present the proposal for a price cap on the price of gas at the European level. Now, a few days before the next European Council, discussions are underway on whether and how to continue along the path traced by the European Commission, which however has proposed a ceiling that is too high, and it is not yet entirely clear when it should possibly be activated and in what time frame it should be able to deploy its effects. Mattiolo was, among other things, ambassador to Israel, Turkey and Germany and believes that Erdogan’s role could be relevant in building the conditions for the opening of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in this phase. “Let’s not forget that Turkey is the only NATO country that has been in dialogue with both Moscow and Kiev for months, and has already played a central role in unblocking cereal exports to Africa. Otherwise it would have been a food catastrophe. Turkey will have to be part of the security mechanism which will have the task of providing guarantees to Ukraine when it comes to the negotiating table”.
China, change of address in the last few months
As for China, whose attitude is more difficult to decipher, there has been an objective change of direction in recent months. Despite all the uncertainties that accompanied it, from many points of view the recent G20 summit in Bali can be considered an objective step forward, clearly expressed in the concluding communiqué where it is observed that the majority of the G20 member countries condemn the war in Ukraine.
Germany’s leading role
Germany, in the European context, will have to continue to have “a leading role”, deeply anchored within the single market. It cannot be underestimated that a not indifferent paradigm shift has taken place in Germany: from a country that historically had shown a precise opposition to forms of common debt, it fully supported the Recovery Fund which provides for the use of common debt to finance direct resources to member countries.