Write: Luis Allen.
Not because expected can be said to be the best scenario: power concentrated in Horacio Cartes and the unfortunate role of mere clerk that outlines the head of state of Santiago Peña. The HC himself affirmed it, when he said at a dinner with representatives of the ANR that being the colorado holder “feels” the president of the Republic. It is the confirmation that Santi’s pen will depend to a great degree on the orders and approval of Cartes.
It was not necessary, of course, for the Patron to express himself in this way with unusual sincerity, since the facts are confirming it, when the president-elect was “bypassed” by ministers of the Executive of Marito who went to visit HC in the Governing Board of the ANR, on Wednesday the 7th, to seek their support for the plan of a private investor, which sets the tone for what will be the norm in the upcoming Chartist government.
With the aim of keeping the forms, shortly after Santi Peña was seen with Marito to start the transition process together with the team designated for that function in a meeting held on Thursday the 8th in Villa Rosalba, the new headquarters of the Executive located as an annex of the Command in Chief of the Armed Forces, in front of the Ministry of National Defense, until the renovation works of the Palacio de López are completed.
There, Marito Abdo promised him an orderly and harmonious transfer of power, leaving on hold the initial insinuation coming safely from the HC himself, to stop public bidding and contracting until the new government takes office.
On the contrary, Santi Peña outlined the first equidistance with his boss, recognizing that “the State must continue to function”, for which he agreed with Marito on a communication channel that ensures the continuity of the actions to be taken by the outgoing Government, acknowledging its preeminence in decision-making until August 15.
In this way, from the initial friction between Peña’s transition team led by Lea Giménez and Marito’s team, we now move on to the scene of what is expected to happen in the Chartist government, with a Horacio Cartes launched to give orders from 25 de mayo street or from the quincho of power on Spain street, thus conditioning the executive’s decisions to depend on his last word.
It is necessary to see how Peña’s presidency ends in this way, since the position and responsibility of head of state are well defined in the letter of the Constitution and cannot be delegated.
It was known about the risk that in Peña’s Chartist government there could be two-headedness or a shared exercise of power, but for HC to set Santi’s agenda is something else, which also demonstrates the need for Horacio to do flaunt his factual power, without giving much chance to grow the legal power of his dauphin.
A sign for America
Knowing that the United States watches his every move, Cartes apparently gave his approval for the first member appointed in the cabinet of ministers, with Enrique Riera in the Ministry of the Interior, who launches a message of a “strong hand” against any attempt to massive protests in the streets and routes of the country, which will be repressed without respecting the constitutional guarantees in the slightest, thus putting democracy itself and the Social State of Law, which is also enshrined in the Constitution, in trouble.
Riera has become the key piece for the consolidation of a right that excludes any hint of a “social pact” with the most relegated sectors of society, such as poor peasants and indigenous people.
With this position of Chartism due to a need to appear as the guarantor of intransigence in the face of social demands, we are facing a near horizon of social confrontations that could be avoided with dialogue between the different political forces, to face the great problems of inequality. and poverty that afflict Paraguayan society.
The Chartist senator and brand new future minister of the most sensitive area such as security, announces that he will not tolerate road closures, land occupations and demonstrations, which, even if they are peaceful and non-violent, will be considered a kind of violation of the Constitution, when on the contrary it even grants all the guarantees for citizen mobilization in defense of social rights that are embodied in the same Magna Carta of 1992.
We must not forget that the Constitution, which is now 31 years old in the democratic era, establishes a set of rules of coexistence on which the Social State of Law is based, which enables a representative and participatory political system where society can to manifest freely and express their opinions freely, contrary to what happened in the Stronista dictatorship, where human rights were violated as well as all democratic guarantees.
Riera clarified in his posts on social networks that in order to defend “third-party rights”, he will not allow protests that imply interfering with the free movement of people as well as invasions of private property, but what is at the root of the problem is the warning already launched now that there will be no possibility of a social or political dialogue in the new Chartist regime, after putting in the first place the maintenance at all costs of a status quo that will make it difficult to move towards a more just and equitable society in the distribution of the generation of wealth, which portends more social instability instead of sustainable development with a human face.
The colored dissidence
As a result of the categorical defeat in the elections due to its inability to present a united front, the opposition continues to find it difficult to put together a strategy that allows it to raise the voice of the majority voters who did not vote for the ANR. For this reason, it once again raises the question to what extent a red dissidence will become the new axis to assemble a real multi-party opposition against the Chartist government, which shows itself to be exclusive on issues that can benefit the vast majority marginalized from growth and wealth creation.
As in a large part of the previous legislative periods, the ANR would again have its dissidence that will face Chartism, despite the fact that both houses of Congress have their own majority. To the extent that Abdism does not have more leaks towards Chartism, the free path would be established for the opposition minority to try to negotiate with the anti-HC in order to approve or reject the projects and measures of the Executive of Santi Peña.
Although in Deputies it was already agreed between both Colorado benches, the Chartist and the Abdist, to accompany a pro-HC candidate for ownership of the Lower House, in the Senate the Republican dissidents could have the support of the opposition to avoid the Chartist claim of taking the presidency, and for this, a united bloc must be in the opposition to which the “payistas” senators of the National Crusade join.
For now, it is already known that Payo Cubas asked his legislators, both senators and deputies, not to direct their votes towards the “peñacartistas”, which would confirm a favorable position of the “payismo” to accompany the opposition bloc on fundamental issues that an anti-chartist majority is required, with the contribution of Fuerza Republicana and the other opposition legislators, not only in the Senate but even in the Chamber of Deputies.
Having the possibility of assembling majorities, even on a case-by-case basis and depending on the issues under discussion in the future Congress, between the Abdists and the united non-Red opposition, implies an essential reinsurance for democracy, given the need to erect a counterweight to the power of HC, which is already showing its claws in the current transition period, as wanting to establish itself as the guarantor of economic stability and political governability, showing its own and strangers, inside and outside the country, that it is the source of where the support for social tranquility would come from.
However, the absence of any hint of the search for a “social pact” to face the necessary reforms and changes in the State so that macroeconomic stability translates into a real benefit for the increase in jobs and people’s income, does not give rise to optimism regarding the possibility that the economic dynamics announced among economic experts will promote an improvement in social indicators.
Likewise, there is also expectation about the real intentions of the Chartist government in the fight against organized crime, the drug-trafficking underworld and border mafias, because until now with Enrique Riera in the Interior only repression of social demands has been offered, while from The Prosecutor’s Office in charge of Emiliano Rolón is promoting a more sophisticated prevention and security plan with technological support included, but which requires the support of government agencies in the police, intelligence and investigation fields, which will depend directly on the environment of HC .
And speaking of the men of the de facto president who is the Patrón HC, members of the “disappeared” Grupo Cartes on paper could add their names to the cabinet of Santi Peña whose members will meet in the coming days, and it remains to be seen if in Some key positions in the economic and energy areas, or in Itaipu and Yacyretá, the Chartist “managers” who were already known in the Chartist period of 2013-2018 reappear.
Suddenly, some well-known names appear, but without any confirmation, such as the case of representative Justo Zacarías Irún as the possible head of Itaipu. But people rightly wonder if Chartism will have the necessary confidence in a ZI to leave it nothing less than the “box” par excellence of any government, even more so at a time when the crucial negotiations with Brazil on Annex C of the Treaty signed 50 years ago.