[Epoch Times September 18, 2021]Shenzhen used to be the city with the highest average birth rate in the mainland. However, the number of pregnant women in Shenzhen has been declining in recent years. People no longer like having children. There is a view that it is caused by high housing prices. disaster.
A report by China Databank on September 18 showed that from 2009 to 2018, Shenzhen ranked first with an average birth rate of 19.07‰, mainly due to the city’s ultra-young population structure. Statistics show that the average age of Shenzhen’s permanent population is only 32.5 years old, with a large number of marriageable and child-bearing populations, which can be said to be the city with the youngest population in mainland China. After the full liberalization of the second child in 2015, the birth rate in Shenzhen has reached its highest peak in the past 10 years, reaching 22.33‰, 25.45‰ and 21.58‰ from 2016 to 2018, respectively.
However, the data has declined in recent years. In 2018, the number of pregnant women in the city decreased by more than 20,000 compared with 2017, a decrease of over 11%; in 2020, the number of pregnant women in the city decreased by nearly 30,000 compared with 2019, a decrease of over 15%. Considering the fact that Shenzhen’s permanent population has grown substantially year after year, the actual birth rate may be even less optimistic.
If we divide the number of pregnant women by the number of permanent residents and look at people’s willingness to give birth, we will find that the willingness of Shenzhen people to give birth has dropped sharply in 2020. Statistics show that for every 10,000 permanent residents in Shenzhen, there are only less than 94 mothers, a decrease of nearly 50 compared with 2019, a decrease of 35%.
As for people’s reduced willingness to have children, reports believe that the main reason is that housing prices in Shenzhen are too high, and the continuously rising housing prices may be one of the important reasons.
The Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center released data on housing price-to-income ratios in 100 cities earlier this year. According to its monitored housing price-to-income ratios, Shenzhen ranks first in housing price-to-income ratios. In 2020, the housing price-to-income ratio will reach 48.1. It is estimated that Shenzhen housing prices are 75,000 yuan. /About per square meter. It means that if a Shenzhen family wants to buy a house of 80 square meters, it needs 48 years of income.
According to the data on the housing price-to-income ratio of 80 cities around the world published by the British database website Numbeo in 2020, Shenzhen’s housing price-to-income ratio is 43.5 in second place. Among the top ten most difficult cities in the world to buy a house, 7 are located in China, including Hong Kong, which is ranked first, Beijing, which is ranked third, and Shanghai, which is ranked seventh.
In cities with high housing prices, the birth rate is generally low. Statistics show that cities with higher housing prices, such as Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong, have a birth rate of less than 1‰ in 2019. High housing prices not only inhibit the willingness to have children, but also greatly increase the cost of marriage. Many young people do not get married and get married late, which objectively leads to delays in birth and a decline in birth rates. Statistics show that the proportion of the single population in Shenzhen ranks among the highest in the country.
Some analysts also believe that high direct costs such as housing and education are key factors that lead to low fertility rates and that young parents today are unwilling to have more children.
The low fertility rate in the mainland has already made the CCP authorities feel a crisis. With the release of data from the seventh mainland census in 2020, the CCP has begun to liberalize three-child births, and has also given some preferential policies for families with three children.
The outside world originally expressed doubts about the 2020 census data released by the CCP, and the CCP’s eagerness to encourage people to have three children also confirmed the serious decline in the mainland’s population from the side. Some scholars even calculated the mainland’s population based on the newborn data released in various places before the census. There has been negative growth.
When mainland netizens answered their unwillingness to have children, high housing prices and high living costs were the main reasons.
Editor in charge: Liu Yi#
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