Original title: How to maintain resilience and vitality in 2022 when China’s foreign trade volume exceeds US$6 trillion for the first time?
Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said that the total value of my country’s imports and exports will increase from 4.22 trillion yuan in 2001 to 39.1 trillion yuan in 2021, with imports and exports increasing by more than 8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 12.2 %.
China’s foreign trade in 2021 handed over a dazzling “transcript”.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 14, in 2021, the total import and export value of China’s trade in goods was 39.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, exports were 21.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, and imports were 17.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. In US dollar terms, the import and export scale reached US$6.05 trillion, breaking the US$6 trillion mark for the first time.
Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, pointed out that maintaining my country’s global leadership in economic development and epidemic prevention and control is one of the factors supporting the growth of my country’s foreign trade. At the same time, the global economy has maintained a recovery trend, and the effects of policies and measures to stabilize growth have continued to show.
However, while raising a glass to celebrate the victory of foreign trade in 2021, it is also necessary to clearly realize that there are also many pressures behind the strong growth of foreign trade: first, the uncertain, unstable and uneven factors faced by foreign trade are increasing, and second, my country’s economy The development is facing three pressures: demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. Third, the global epidemic situation is still severe, the external environment is more complex and severe, and the recovery momentum of international demand is slowing down.
RCEP officially took effect on New Year’s Day, and the international order is still in a moment of continuous change. In 2022, what kind of curve can China’s foreign trade draw?
In 2021, China’s foreign trade will make great progress
Customs data show that in 2021, my country’s total import and export value is 39.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, exports were 21.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.2%; imports were 17.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.5%. In dollar terms, my country’s annual import and export volume exceeded the US$6 trillion mark for the first time, reaching US$6.05 trillion. Eight years after reaching US$4 trillion for the first time in 2013, it exceeded US$5 trillion and US$6 trillion during the year. steps. In 2021, the increase in foreign trade will reach 1.4 trillion US dollars. The “14th Five-Year Plan” foreign trade has achieved a good start.
As 2021 draws to a close, China celebrates the 20th anniversary of its accession to the WTO. Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said that the total value of my country’s imports and exports will increase from 4.22 trillion yuan in 2001 to 39.1 trillion yuan in 2021, with imports and exports increasing by more than 8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 12.2 %.
He pointed out that in 2021, the import and export of my country’s comprehensive bonded zone, free trade pilot zone and Hainan Free Trade Port will increase by 24.3%, 26.4% and 57.7% respectively.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Academy of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that China’s foreign trade in 2021 can be summarized as “five things”:
First, there is confidence that my country’s foreign trade has not lost its stamina due to a series of challenges such as the epidemic; the second is ability. In recent years, my country’s foreign trade has undergone active transformation and upgrading, and China’s resilience, influence and competition in the international industrial chain and supply chain Third, there is support. The national policy of stabilizing foreign trade and the support from governments at all levels to foreign trade entities have helped foreign trade companies overcome many difficulties. Fourth, they have responsibility. When the industrial chain and supply chain of some countries are interrupted, China will make up for it in time. To fill the vacancies, while maintaining the stability of world trade, it also brings opportunities to Chinese enterprises. Fifth, China is prepared to seize the opportunities brought by the recovery of the global economy and the recovery of overseas demand in a timely manner.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that there are five main reasons for China’s foreign trade exceeding expectations in 2021: first, the domestic epidemic is well controlled; second, overseas demand is picking up; third, the industrial system Complete, complete industrial chain, complete infrastructure; fourth, foreign trade enterprises have strong adaptability; fifth, strong and effective support for stabilizing foreign trade.
It is worth noting that in December 2021, my country’s foreign trade import and export growth rate was 16.7%, a decline from the previous period.
In this regard, Zhou Maohua said that single-month fluctuations are a normal phenomenon, and at the same time, the rise of the base in December last year also had a certain impact.
Bai Ming believes that December 2021 has actually passed the Christmas season. And in the fourth quarter of 2021, the economy of the United States and the European Union experienced a decline, high inflation, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, all of which affected the purchasing power of foreign countries.
Inflation data for December 2021 showed the U.S. consumer price index (cpi) rose 7% year over year for the first time since 1982 — a reading that Philadelphia Fed President Harker described as “very high, very bad.”
How to withstand the pressure in 2022
Li Kuiwen said that the current global epidemic has fluctuated and fluctuated, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain. The relative advantage and base effect of my country’s economic recovery may be weakened. In 2022, my country’s foreign trade development will face more uncertain, unstable and unbalanced factors.
The previous Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations. In 2021, the PMI new export order index, which reflects export expectations, has been declining in the second and third quarters, deviating from the export data.
Zhou Maohua said that foreign trade will face certain pressure in 2022, but resilience still exists. my country’s epidemic prevention is still leading, and the supply system is complete and maintains sufficient elasticity and flexibility; it is expected that the impact of the global epidemic on the economy and supply chain will be marginally weakened, and global policies will take care, and demand has not yet deviated from the recovery track; domestic trade structure continues to optimize, and market competitiveness gradually improves; Domestic and foreign trade support policies are targeted and effective. The restoration of the global industrial chain is also a major benefit to my country’s industrial manufacturing industry.
Bai Ming analyzed that China, as a trade power, has developed for many years and has strong foreign trade strength, but there will still be great pressure in 2022. Many positive factors of foreign trade are manifested in advance, while negative factors are likely to be lagging behind; with the resumption of work and production in Southeast Asian countries, there is a risk of loss of some of China’s foreign trade orders; policies to encourage foreign trade are fully realized, and subsequent policies have limited benefits. “China’s foreign trade will cross the two major steps of 5 trillion and 6 trillion US dollars in 2021, but it is difficult to achieve such a situation in 2022.” Bai Ming said.
On January 11, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: “If we see inflation staying high for longer than expected, and if more rate hikes have to be done over a longer period, we will do so, using tools to bring inflation back up.” back to the target.”
Zhou Maohua analyzed that at present, China and the United States are in different economic and policy cycles, and the Fed’s interest rate hike has a significant impact on another economy and requires other “conditions” to cooperate. Domestic pre-adjustment and fine-tuning under normal monetary policy, more reliance on structural tools to accurately support the real economy, medium and long-term improvement of the domestic economy, steady opening of the financial industry to the outside world, and overall low valuation of RMB assets will attract the inflow of overseas capital, etc. . The normalization of the Fed’s policy is expected to have a manageable domestic impact.
Bai Ming pointed out that the Bank of Korea has raised interest rates three times within 6 months, and other countries also have strong interest rate hike expectations. China’s monetary policy should fully consider factors such as inflation, interest rate levels, the balance of payments and the external environment. At present, the domestic inflation rate is low, which has reserved a certain space for monetary policy, but “bullets” still need to be used with caution to prevent imbalances in the balance of payments and maintain basic stability.
He believes that in 2022, the main force for stabilizing foreign trade should be focused on enterprises. Only by stabilizing enterprises and ensuring employment can the market be motivated. It is necessary to further optimize the business environment, deepen the reform of “delegating power, delegating power and improving services”, helping enterprises to bail out, especially supporting small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises, providing a safe haven for enterprises, striving to maintain orders, stabilize expectations, and promote the stable development of foreign trade.
On January 1, the RCEP came into effect. Customs statistics show that in 2021, my country’s imports and exports to the other 14 member countries of RCEP will be 12.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.1%, accounting for 30.9% of my country’s total foreign trade value. Among them, exports were 5.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%; imports were 6.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%.
Bai Ming analyzed that the entry into force of RCEP has the greatest impact on the trade between China and Japan, because this is the first time that China and Japan have established bilateral free trade relations. In the first year of the implementation of the tariff reduction, 25% of the tariff items imported by China from Japan will achieve zero tariff; 57% of the tariff items imported by Japan from China will be reduced to zero tariff. At the same time, the dislocation of the original free trade agreements and RCEP between China and other countries will also become the growth point of my country’s foreign trade. In addition, the unique regional accumulation rules of RCEP will also better connect the industrial chain and supply chain in East Asia. “The benefits of RCEP are gradually released, and the ability to drive foreign trade in a short period of time is limited.” Bai Ming said.
(Author: Zhao Zijian Editor: Bao Fangming)
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