It’s a showdown that may have no winner. On January 10, the military junta in power in Bamako responded in a defiant tone to the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (Cedeao), defined as “illegal” and “illegitimate” by a spokesman who wore a khaki uniform and which accused the African heads of state of being “exploited by extra-regional powers with occult designs”, including of course France.
Mali, a landlocked country, finds itself with closed land borders, air links with neighboring countries cut off and its capital frozen by regional monetary institutions.
At the center of the conflict is the duration of the transition proposed by the military for a return to civil power: the elections scheduled for next month have been postponed to… 2026! The Cedeao countries believe that the junta has “taken the Malian people hostage” and has imposed a series of sanctions among the most severe an African country has ever had to suffer. The risk is that it is mainly the population that pays, whose daily life will become even more difficult.
Why such a harsh reaction from African countries? The simplest explanation is that the countries of the region fear the multiplication of military coups, after those in Guinea and Mali. By imposing severe sanctions, African governments hope to discourage potential coup leaders within their borders.
But this is not the only explanation. Indeed, the legitimacy crisis does not only concern military regimes. If we look closely at the situation, few of the fifteen countries that are part of the Cedeao can say that they fully respect their constitutions. By reacting harshly against the military powers, African countries are placing themselves on the side of good governance, regardless of their shortcomings.
Explosive situation
With this regional conflict, Mali has entered an area of turbulence and uncertainty, and reacts by relaunching on the level of security. At the same time, in fact, a silent clash is underway between France and the Malian junta over the now evident use of Russian soldiers, whose status is not yet clear. Are they mercenaries or trainers?
Currently, photos are circulating showing men in camouflage in Bamako and Ségou in the center of the country, but also in Timbuktu in the north, where the French army left one of its bases last month.
For the moment, Paris is silent and lets the Cedeao countries act, but the situation risks not being sustainable for a long time. The coexistence between Malian, French and Russian soldiers, as well as the UN forces and jihadist groups that occupy a large part of the country, is clearly incompatible. The situation is explosive.
Mali, therefore, is the scene of a multiform and unprecedented crisis that will have to find a quick solution before the country plunges into chaos. It is a test for all the actors involved in this crisis:
The moment of truth has arrived.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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