At what moment does a revolt turn into a revolution? In other words: is the unprecedented movement in Iran fighting against the moral order of the mullahs condemned to vanish under the blows of merciless repression? Or is it already strong enough to change the situation if not the regime itself?
After the death, ten days ago, of the young Mahsa Amini, arrested by the moral police for an extra lock of hair or a behavior deemed inadequate, the images that come to us from Iran are extraordinary. Almost everywhere in the country, girls show boundless courage, along with men who share their struggle. All regions and all social strata are involved in this movement triggered by a trivial incident (by Iranian standards) but which seems to have been the incident too many.
At the moment there are already more than fifty deaths and hundreds of arrests. The repressive machine went into operation and was asked by the authorities to be inflexible. Yet the demonstrations do not stop.
Impervious to pressure
Does the regime have the means to control the situation? Without a doubt, and if history can teach us something we can assume that it also has the will. Nothing, in this case, can stop its repression. Not even the international protests, coming from both governments and public opinion. Iran is impervious to pressure, not least because it already faces severe sanctions due to its nuclear program.
The story, therefore, will be decided on the home front, in a tug-of-war between young people who show their exasperation over religious bans and a regime that does not intend to allow the square to dictate laws. In all this it must be remembered that Iran is a piece of the puzzle of the world confrontation triggered by the Russian war in Ukraine.
The novelty is represented by this new generation, by girls who are more educated than their mothers and determined not to allow themselves to be subjugated. The Franco-Iranian sociologist Farhad Khosrokhavar explained in an interview with the Obs that “we are facing a feminist movement launched by women that crosses all social classes and takes on a national dimension. It is an absolutely new phenomenon ”.
Khosrokhavar stresses that “the gesture of unprecedented courage by all women who burn their hijab and cut their hair has ridiculed a regime that is disconnected from its people”.
Despite this analysis, it is possible that religious power is able to crush the wind of revolt, perhaps at the cost of an even heavier death toll.
But the drive of an entire generation, that of the grandchildren of the 1979 revolution, marked an important milestone in the country’s troubled history, with a demand for individual freedom that the mullahs thought they had erased from the Iranian political model.
Iran, with its long history and proud identity, will have to learn to live with this generation that wants to be free. Even if this does not happen today, who can believe that the liberated girls, driven to rebel by the death of the young Mahsa Amini, will obediently re-enter the ranks under the blows of the batons? The mullahs have a big problem on their hands.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)