Is Europe ready for a second Trump era? – Pierre Haski

Before we even know the definitive results in the United States – and in particular those on the fundamental majority in the Senate – we can draw two conclusions from the mid-term elections. The first is political, while the second directly concerns us Europeans.

At another time there would have been nothing dramatic about the defeat of the president’s party in the mid-term elections. In fact, of the last 40 interim elections, 37 were lost by the party that occupied the White House at the time. Nothing new, therefore, in the passage of the chamber to the Republicans.

What makes this vote special is “Trumpism”, that is, Donald Trump himself. Two years ago Joe Biden was elected with the promise of the return of a certain political “normality”: in the dignity of the presidential function, in the predictable nature of his positions and in the functioning of the institutions. Overall, Biden kept his promises, but it wasn’t enough.

A stainless figure
“Trumpism” has survived Trump’s erratic handling. Far from discredited by the assault on Congress on January 6, 2021, the movement managed to instill some Americans doubt about the validity of Biden’s election. One in two Republican candidates is a deniera denier, that is, he believes that the 2020 elections were manipulated to take away the victory from Trump.

Trump’s stainless figure is more present than ever. The former president has promised an “important announcement” for next November 15th. Presumably it will be his 2024 presidential candidacy. Even if there is no “red wave” (or Republican) of the size hoped for by Trump, the success of the “mini-Trump” candidates is enough to allow him to claim the paternity of the victory and use it as a springboard. The first lesson of the vote is that we have not moved on from Trump and Trumpism at all.

The second lesson is about Europe. Since last February 24, when we plunged into the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, the United States has played a decisive role in political, military and financial support for Kiev.

It is no exaggeration to say that without the Americans and their ability to influence Europeans, the development of this war would have been very different, regardless of the courage of the Ukrainians.

Can we believe that this support is now under threat? The question still has no answer. One of the far-right Trumpian lawmakers, Marjorie Taylor Greene, has promised that Ukraine will no longer come in pennies, but other Republicans are determined to help Kiev. It will be necessary to understand where the center of gravity will be placed on the subject.

The real question for Europeans is whether they are ready to relive a second Trump era in the event of his victory in 2024. Biden’s commitment to Ukraine had reassured the most Atlanticists. Not long ago a Northern European head of government confessed to me that he wanted to make sure that the US military stayed in Europe to protect his country from him.

In the event of a Republican victory, this support will no longer be guaranteed. To understand this, just remember that when he was in the White House, Trump had come very close to leaving NATO.

Will the mid-term elections reawaken the program of “European sovereignty” which has taken a back seat with the return of the United States to the security scenario of the old continent? Or will Europe remain forever dependent on elections taking place overseas? The question is obviously existential.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)