In the second quarter of 2022, Istat estimates that the gross domestic product, expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 1% compared to the previous quarter and by 4.6% in trend terms. This can be read in the preliminary estimate released by the Institute of Statistics. In the first quarter of the year, GDP recorded an increase of + 0.1%.
Istat, in the second quarter accelerates to + 1%
The second quarter, Istat explains, had one working day less than both the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2021. The cyclical variation is the synthesis of a decrease in added value in the agriculture, forestry and fishing and an increase in both industry and services. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the domestic component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component.
Istat, growth acquired for 2022 improves to + 3.4%
The acquired change in GDP for 2022, or the annual change that would be obtained in the presence of a zero cyclical change in the remaining quarters of the year, is equal to + 3.4%. Istat notes this in light of the increase in GDP in the second quarter, estimated to grow by 1%. The forecast for the year therefore improves compared to the + 2.6% estimated at the end of May based on the trend in the first quarter (+ 0.1%).
Istat, the expansion phase continues to accelerate
“The expansionary phase of GDP therefore continues for the sixth consecutive quarter, accelerating compared to the first quarter of the year, when growth was slightly positive”. Istat explains this by commenting on the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter (+ 1% in economic terms and + 4.6% in trend terms). “As always, we note the provisional nature of this estimate, which reflects on the production side a decline in agriculture and growth in both industry and services. A positive contribution to growth – Istat specifies – came from the national component, while the net foreign component generated a negative contribution “
Istat, in July drops to 7.9% thanks to energy
In July, on the other hand, trend inflation falls back by a tenth of a percentage point from the June record (+ 8.0%) to + 7.9%, while the consumer price index records an increase of 0.4% on a basis monthly. This is what is shown by the Istat estimates of July. The slowdown was affected by the decline in energy goods (from + 48.7% in June to + 42.9%) thanks above all to regulated energy goods (from + 64.3% to + 47.8%) and only to a minimal extent from non-regulated energy sources (from + 39.9% to + 39.8%). “Core inflation”, net of energy and fresh food, accelerates from + 3.8% to + 4.1% and that net of energy alone from +4.2 to + 4.7%.