Home » Kiev does not appreciate the strategic hesitations of France and Germany – Pierre Haski

Kiev does not appreciate the strategic hesitations of France and Germany – Pierre Haski

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Kiev does not appreciate the strategic hesitations of France and Germany – Pierre Haski

16 maggio 2022 10:11

At each stage of a long and brutal war, the risks of misunderstandings or disagreements increase. This is undoubtedly the case of the war in Ukraine, which has now lasted for 80 days and whose end is not in sight.

Until recently, Germany hesitated at the idea of ​​sending significant weapons to Ukraine. For some days now it has been France’s turn to hesitate, starting with Emmanuel Macron’s positions on Russia, which deserve an analysis because they reveal deeper problems and as a potential cause of important consequences on political equilibrium in Europe.

In an interview broadcast on Italian TV Rai 1 on 12 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj commented on the statements with which Macron, on 9 May, had warned of the consequences of a “humiliation” of Russia. The reporter asked Zelenskii if it is not advisable to allow Putin to save face. “I cannot give Russia a way out,” the Ukrainian president replied. “Only Russia can do it. It is not fair that some leaders ask us to hand over something to allow Putin to save face ”.

A risky timing
At issue is clearly the passage of the French president’s speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg in which Macron declared that “when peace arrives” we must build the new balance of security in Europe, “without ever giving in to temptation or humiliation nor the spirit of revenge “. On the occasion of his press conference, Macron explicitly referred to the Treaty of Versailles signed at the end of the First World War, when the seed of the next war was planted. “In 1918 we humiliated” the defeated, Macron recalled.

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This reasoning is not without foundation, but the fact remains that Zelenskii finds himself in the midst of a war for survival, with atrocities such as those taking place in Mariupol. How can he be asked to think about not humiliating Russia? The timing is at least risky.

The Franco-German tandem, the traditional engine of the Union, is criticized for its hesitation before Russia

Such a council could have waited at least for the appearance of a negotiation in sight, and this is by no means the case. They appreciated little in Kiev, especially considering that France, with its proposal for a “European political community”, is postponing Ukraine’s accession to the EU to a distant date.

This discordant note actually illustrates a change in the current equilibrium of Europe: the Franco-German tandem, the traditional engine of the Union, is criticized for its hesitation before Russia. The two countries are not subjected to the same accusations, but are nevertheless equally out of phase with respect to the center of gravity of Europe, which due to the war in Ukraine is located on the eastern flank of the Union, where you can smell the scent of a possible victory over a Russia that has always been considered the enemy.

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With the US leadership clearly affirming itself in this war on European soil (if only for the extent of the military support guaranteed to Ukraine) and with the continuous relaunches of the post-Brexit British, who have finally found their reason for d being, the relative prudence of the French and the Germans changes the European equilibrium.

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This war promises to be long, and the two main powers of the Union certainly have a key role to play in the storms that are brewing. But they must listen to the message of the Ukrainian president.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)

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