Last day of polls. From tomorrow the parties will be naked. For two weeks, until the vote on 25 September, it will not be possible to publish the findings. For two weeks the party numbers will remain frozen in this final photograph of the polling institutes. Euromedia Research for Porta Porta confirms Fratelli d’Italia as the first party, at 24.7, three points above the Pd at 21.8. The party led by Enrico Letta confirms the negative trend also reported by other pollsters and is the political force that loses the most in a week: from 30 August to 7 September 1.7% of voters abandoned it in their intentions to vote. For whom? Something could have gnawed at the M5S which, according to the institute led by Alessandra Ghisleri, rises by 0.7, in a specular and opposite way to the Lega which instead falls by 0.7. The same identical percentage increase, 0.7, for the Italian Greens-Left, allied in coalition with the Democratic Party: demonstrating that the dem could suffer an erosion in the electorate furthest to the left. The Movement of Giuseppe Conte continues its rise and is at 13%, in third place, above Matteo Salvini, still at 11.8. The Action-Italia Viva tandem follows at 7.8%, confirming the scenario of an overtaking on Forza Italia: a challenge in the challenge for the competition in the field of the so-called moderate vote.
Calculated on the coalitions, the voting intentions reward the center-right at 45.3%, which detaches the center-left at 28.3%. There would therefore seem to be little hope of a comeback. The decision to separate from the M5S, made by Letta after the fall of the Draghi government, does not reward the strategy of the useful vote on which the dem counted to marginalize Conte and Carlo Calenda.
Fourteen days after the vote it is very interesting to focus on the figure of the undecided, voters who could choose at the last minute on whom to put their cross. They are still 35%, according to Ghisleri. They are more women (64.3%), in the 25-44 age group (42.9%) and are mainly located in the North-West (26.8%) and North-East (25.7%) areas. ). For parties struggling with the last days of the electoral campaign, the composition by political origin is very significant: excluding the non-voting area, which is 39.1% of that 35%, the undecided are above all among the voters of the M5S , 20.4% (and it is quite obvious because it is the party that triumphed with 32% in 2018). The League follows with 14.1% and the Pd 12.8%. It is a pool of possible votes to be recovered that could be convenient for the leaders and on which Conte, according to all pollsters, has worked a lot. It is his bet to get closer to the former allies of the Democratic Party: to bring back to the polls those who were generally disappointed by the parties, including the Movement, by reappearing as a force against the status quo, despite almost five years of uninterrupted government with all political forces except Fdi and the Italian Left. In this regard, Euromedia Research reports one last fact: to the question addressed to the undecided “Are you interested in the facts of politics?”, 41.4 percent (we are almost one in two of the interviewees) replied “No, tired “. An answer that should worry the party leaders.