Disk situation analysis:
As the U.S. and Swiss governments have intervened in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and the Credit Suisse crisis, 11 large U.S. banks announced capital injections to assist First Republic Bank, reducing systemic risks. The four major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, and the technology index rose strongly. The index pulls in the middle and long red, driving the Taiwan electronics stock index to bounce back to the monthly line. The market rebounded last week with the support of the annual line and the quarterly line. , maintaining a high-end shock trend above the annual line.
The U.S. Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March last year, and has raised interest rates eight times so far. The Fed’s range interest rate has risen to 4.5% to 4.75%. The continuous sharp increase in interest rates has triggered the collapse of U.S. banks and the Credit Suisse crisis, financial market turmoil, and shocks Financial stocks and the stock market. However, due to the experience of the 2008 financial tsunami crisis and the 2011 European debt crisis, the US and Swiss governments quickly intervened. Although it may not be able to appease and boost market confidence immediately, it should avoid further turmoil in the financial market.
Originally, because the employment and inflation figures were higher than expected, and the economic data was still strong, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was hawkish in his testimony to Congress. The market expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 2 yards at its March meeting. However, due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, The banking system is under pressure, and market expectations have changed from raising interest rates by 2 yards to suspending interest rate hikes, keeping interest rates unchanged, and even expecting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and suspend quantitative tightening; however, despite the turmoil in the international financial market, the European Central Bank maintained its original plan to raise interest rates. The rate range of 2 yards remains unchanged. The OECD calls on major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to continue to raise interest rates to combat stubborn inflation. The possibility of the Fed raising 1 yard in March is likely to be neutral to the stock market look at.
In this wave of international stock markets, the KD value of the 9 weeks generally crossed downwards, undergoing a mid-term correction. The Dow Jones Index and the S&P500 Index fell back to the quarterly and annual lines. The strongest German stocks and French stocks also fell below the quarterly lines. The 10-year bond yield pulled back to around 3.5%, the technology index performed strongly, the Nasdaq index rebounded to the annual line, the Feiban index held the support of the quarterly line, rebounded strongly and returned to the monthly line, and the 9-week KD value turned slightly and crossed upwards. The gradual strengthening after mid-term consolidation is expected to drive the performance of electronic stocks in Taiwan stocks and offset the weak impact of financial stocks. The market is expected to maintain a high-end volatile trend.
Operation suggestion:
The daily RSI and the 9th KD value turn upwards at low levels, and a short-term rebound is expected. However, after 9 weeks of KD values above 80 and high-level passivation for 5 weeks, they turn slightly and cross downward. However, this wave of 9-week KD values high-level passivation is an index sideways shock Formed, it does not have too strong reversal upward force, so the 9-week KD value crosses downward at a high level, as long as the weekly RSI stays above 50, there will be no obvious reversal downward correction.
In the short-to-medium term, we still see fluctuations between the high point of 15,152 in November last year and 15,879 points. It is recommended to choose stocks and operate in ranges every time. Pay attention to AI-related applications (IP silicon intellectual property, IC design and services), high-speed transmission, electric vehicle related, information Centers, new energy and energy storage, automation, military industry, unblocking beneficiary stocks, etc., the stock prices pulled back to hold the support of the monthly or quarterly line, and the 9-week KD value is still rising. Relatively strong stocks.
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