Home » Libya still has to wait for free and fair elections – Khalifa Abo Khraisse

Libya still has to wait for free and fair elections – Khalifa Abo Khraisse

by admin

December 22, 2021 12:53 pm

“I’m not a prophet, and I’m not a sorcerer, I can’t tell you what’s going to happen.” Like this had United Nations Secretary General António Guterres answered a question about the likelihood that the elections promoted by the UN in Libya would actually take place on December 24, as planned. The question was asked during a press conference in early December. After listing various problems related to the electoral law, Guterres added: “We will do everything to facilitate dialogue and resolve issues that could be seen as divisive elements in Libya, so that the conduct of the elections can contribute to the solution of that country’s problems. “.

But the efforts were in vain, as on 21 December the head of the Libyan electoral commission ordered the dissolution of national electoral committees, a move that effectively postpones the presidential elections. A new date is being discussed, which could be January 24, 2022.

Once again, the proposal to hold elections in Libya has not helped to solve problems but, on the contrary, has aggravated the existing divisions. To say that Libyans should vote as soon as possible so that an elected government can get to work to reunify institutions means putting the cart before the horse. The biggest success of the UN mediation was the signing of a ceasefire. Aside from that, the international organization continues to repeat the same mistakes it had made before.

In 2015 the UN forced the Libyans to converge quickly on a political agreement that led to the formation of a government of national accord (GNA), completely powerless. After that he had carried on the dialogue based on the assumption that the GNA represented all of western Libya, when in reality it did not even have control of the militias active in that part of the country. For this reason it was absurd to talk about elections: at that moment there was no guarantee of a correct conduct or of the willingness of the actors involved to accept the results.

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When the Libyan counterparts agreed to organize elections the following December at the Paris summit in May 2018, President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative did not bring the desired results. Until that moment, apart from some minor clashes, the armed groups affiliated with the opposing Libyan fronts had not been involved in an open war. But in 2019, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, a strongman from eastern Libya, launched an offensive on Tripoli.

The latest version of a political agreement was built on the basis of the division of power between three regions: Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan. Once again, however, the UN has addressed the politicians of western Libya as if they were part of a single entity, while the reality is very different. To govern de facto Western Libya is a coalition of militias, political currents and Islamist movements, with different ideologies and specific interests. In 2019, Western forces put aside their differences to block Haftar’s advance. These conflicts resurfaced as soon as a ceasefire was signed.

The issue of security in Tripoli led to the current situation, between calls to boycott the elections launched by the Muslim Brotherhood, which wanted to block them at all costs, and the deep rivalry between the two main candidates of Misrata, Fathi Bashagha, former GNA interior minister, and Abdul Hamid Dbaibah, prime minister of the current transitional government. As if that were not enough, an armed group led by Saleh Badi, another military commander of Misrata, had recently besieged important institutional offices in the capital, including that of the government and the ministry of defense. Badi had declared that there would be no presidential elections in Libya, and that he would shut down all state institutions. Badi also criticized the role played by the UN special adviser on Libya, Stephanie Williams, calling him a criminal.

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A return that has reshuffled the cards
Had western Libya also been ready for elections, the vote could not have been free and fair in the east, where Haftar retains absolute and unshakable power. The same goes for the south. In addition to Islamic and tribal extremist militias, Haftar also relied on groups of mercenaries and allied with supporters of the former regime of Muammar Gaddafi to extend his control to the center and south. The former dictator’s family is concentrated in the coastal city of Sirte in central Libya, but has a significant presence in some cities in southern Libya, including Sebha.

Muammar Gaddafi effectively manipulated ethnic and tribal rivalries, and some communities native to southern Libya formed the backbone of his army and security forces. After the revolt, the stigma that the pro-Gaddafi tribes carried on them effectively excluded them from playing any role in post-revolutionary Libya. Haftar used their discontent to take control of large areas in the center and south of the country. The alliance resisted despite disputes and tensions – especially regarding smuggling routes – but collapsed when Saif al Islam Gaddafi, son of the late dictator, announced his candidacy with a speech from the city of Sebha.

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For his supporters, Gaddafi’s return was like the arrival of the Messiah, although instead of divine intervention it would be more correct to speak of a Kremlin intervention. It is worth mentioning that Russian influence in Libya extends beyond the use of mercenaries, the supply of weapons and disinformation on Libyan social networks. For example, Moscow had vetoed Williams’ appointment: this is why Guterres named her “special adviser” instead of head of the UN support mission in Libya (Unsmil).

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Tensions peaked when the hearing to discuss Gaddafi’s appeal against Sebha against his exclusion from the elections was postponed because some Haftar-affiliated fighters had besieged the court. For nearly a week, the judges were unable to enter the building as locals demonstrated in support of Gaddafi in front of the court. When the militiamen finally withdrew, the judges decided to readmit the candidate. Clashes are currently underway in Sebha that could redefine the map of military alliances between forces close to Haftar, and the tribes and armed groups that support Saif al Islam.

Foreign fighters and mercenaries
Competition between foreign powers had also made it even more unlikely that Libyan factions would accept the election results. According to UN estimates, there are currently twenty thousand foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya, including Syrians, Sudanese, Chadians, not to mention the personnel of the private security company Wagner. The Libyan authorities have called for the withdrawal of foreign fighters, but their number has not decreased. Despite the arms embargo, the flights supplying the western and eastern regions of Libya continue undisturbed. In any case, according to UN experts, the weapons present in the country are more than sufficient to support any future conflict.

Going to the vote without eliminating the underlying problems would have meant that those who control the country find it convenient to interrupt the political process and prolong the status quo. It has already happened after the 2014 vote, when the militias blew up the situation, extending the mandates of the authorities in office indefinitely. There is no need to be a prophet or a sorcerer to understand this, nor to know that pulling the branches to accelerate growth is completely useless in a process that should start from the bottom.

(Translation by Giusy Muzzopappa)

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