The summer heat is coming and according to the computing centers and the longer (those who push on long-term forecasts) who are already throwing an eye to the seasonal ones, this is about to begin (the meteorological summer starts on June 1) could be the hottest summer ever in Europe and the Mediterranean. Even hotter and more torrid than that of 2003, when for weeks the climate in Italy was characterized by temperatures over 40 ° C and above all by a long dry period.
The reliability of long-term forecasts
As always, an important premise is valid: long-term forecasts, despite having been refined over time thanks to increasingly sophisticated calculation systems, do not have high reliability. Meteorologists never go beyond the week. Or rather, when they do, they always start with a fundamental detail: the probability of hitting a prediction recedes as you go beyond 72 hours. In short, predicting the weather over such a long distance is not easy.
This does not mean that we cannot go far beyond the weekly forecast. Science has also made great strides in this area. International weather centers (starting with the center of Reading in the UK) have been making long-term forecasts for some time. And the indications that arrive, in this sense, are those of a very hot summer. Torrid, to use an expression that makes it clear what could happen.
The details
So far, late spring has been characterized by higher temperatures in Central South than in Northern Italy, characterized, however, by frequent raids from the North and North East that have caused rains, thunderstorms and temperatures on average or in some cases sub-average. Looking further ahead and relying on data from the European Center, we can draw a trend line. The day after tomorrow starts the summer, but “for the first real turning point thanks to the comeback in grand style of the African anticyclone which will guarantee greater atmospheric stability and above all a marked increase in temperatures we will have to wait until June 10” say the experts from Ilmeteo.it.
“According to the latest official update, the month of July could pass under the banner of great heat over a large part of our country with positive thermal anomalies of about + 1 ° C compared to the reference climatic average (1993-2016)”. Translated, it means that the classic “flare-ups” of the African anticyclone await us, with hot air pumped directly into the heart of the Mediterranean and temperatures that will reach 40 ° centigrade. In particular in the Central South regions.
«Finally, the news that emerges from the last screening concerns the temperatures. In fact, despite the recent years, an anomaly of about + 0.5 ° C seems to prevail at the moment, therefore closer to the reference historical averages than has happened in recent years. If this were to be confirmed, it is legitimate to expect such a hot month, but without too many excesses, not overwhelming as it often happened in the last summer seasons: in short, the classic Italian summer, typical of the 70s and 80s, could be configured “.
The next days
The African anticyclone has been showing the first signs of awakening for a few days. And he will be the reference figure for the coming weeks and months. “In the Mediterranean area the pressure is gradually increasing and although a little patience will still be needed, on the horizon we can see more and more of its interference also on Italy”. And again the experts of Ilmeteo.it. How will the climatic situation evolve in the coming days and above all what will be the fateful date for the arrival of the real summer heat? “After yet another parenthesis of ups and downs on the thermal front expected between the second part of the weekend and the first days of next week, between Wednesday 2 and Thursday 3 June the warm jerseys of the anticyclone will begin their triumphal march towards the Bel Paese where temperatures will begin a real escalation ». Due to the great heat, however, we will have to wait until the second decade of June.