The analysis of Professor Vincenzo Della Mea and the secret study on the reopening of another professor from Udine
UDINE. On the one hand the greater freedom regained by everyone with the yellow zone, on the other the strong fear – especially of the scientific community – for a possible rise in the contagion curve. The future of Italy will be played out on these two aspects in the coming months, but from today we can put some fixed points to orient ourselves between openings and closures, infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Two professors from the University of Udine can provide as many readings of what awaits us.
“Right now we are facing contrasting effects – comments Professor Vincenzo Della Mea, professor of Medical Informatics at the Department of Mathematical, Computer and Physical Sciences of the University of Udine -: if it is true that we have already verified that the yellow zone is insufficient to contain the advance of the virus and its variants, however, we must consider two new aspects that act in the opposite direction, namely the vaccination campaign and the hottest season.
The last time the yellow zone had been applied, that is, in February, it took three weeks to bring the contagion curve up sharply. So, if we are now in attendance for the fifth week following a decline in infections, a first verification of this new reopening could already be done in about twenty days, around May 15-16. At that moment we will realize if prudence has prevailed with the help of heat and vaccines or the strength of the virus ».
«Examining the Sardinia case, however – continues the teacher who has drawn up a series of graphs on the evolution of the virus that he shares with the Messaggero Veneto since the beginning of the pandemic – we realize that one cannot get out of the grip of Covid so easily. A region that has turned white has been attacked by the virus again in a few weeks, ending up in the red zone ”.
To understand that we are walking on a tightrope just read the contents of a confidential study signed by Professor Stefano Merler, mathematician-epidemiologist of the Bruno Kessler Foundation (research body of the Autonomous Province of Trento) and professor of the PhD in computer science and science mathematics and physics of the University of Udine.
Merler has been providing the results of his researches to the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health since February 2020 (and so far his predictions have always proved correct). His latest work was announced by Corriere della Sera: it was presented on April 16 at the CTS and was decisive in curbing the desire to reopen everything on the part of some fringes of the Draghi government.
Merler – who works on numbers without taking into account external factors – focuses on the Rt index (which measures the contagion capacity) detected on symptomatic cases. Between March 31 and April 13, the index was equal to 0.81. If the RT were to go back to 1, between now and July 15 we would have to continue to deal with a total of 200/300 deaths per day in the country.
If the index were to touch 1.1, the risk would be of a steady increase in deaths up to 600 per day in mid-July (300 as of June 24). A further increase to 1.25 would mean reaching very serious numbers for Italy: up to 1,200 / 1,300 victims per day. Considerations that are based on mathematical calculations that do not take into account additional factors that could change the scenarios, such as political decisions to impose new limitations in the meantime.
However, Merler’s calculations take into account the lowering of the lethality of the virus due to vaccinations. If the immunization campaign proceeds with ever greater effectiveness, it will be possible to protect the fragile subjects who are obviously those most at risk. And the danger of the contagion could significantly decrease.
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