UDINE. It hadn’t happened for seven months. But finally, on Sunday 16 May, the Region’s bulletin reported a long-awaited figure: no deaths from Covid.
To find the “zero” figure in the most dramatic item of the pandemic, it is necessary to go back to 17 October.
Since that moment, unfortunately, the numbers have grown, between areas of various colors and fluctuations in infections. Also counting several dozen deaths a day.
Then the figure dropped again. And returning to “zero” is an important symbolic fact.
After all, all the curves and indicators of the pandemic have been slowing down for some time. The infections have been decreasing for eight weeks.
And even the return to the yellow zone did not restart the epidemic, as many feared.
What contributed to improving the situation so decisively?
To analyze the progress made so far (and in particular from April 26, when Friuli Venezia Giulia returned to yellow) is Professor Vincenzo Della Mea – professor of Medical Informatics of the Department of Mathematical, Computer and Physical Sciences of the University of Udine – that since the beginning of the pandemic records the trend of the curves day by day, creating a series of graphs that it shares with the Messaggero Veneto.
«When we returned to the yellow together with other Italian regions – comments the teacher – someone would have wanted further reopening in addition to those already set for April 26th.
In short, the government’s decisions had seemed too prudent. But it must be said that it is thanks to those decisions that we can now benefit from this good situation.
If we had arrived this far with other numbers, with more infections, now the Government would not have been able to proceed with other reopening.
So I would say it went well and we must all be careful not to let the situation get out of hand ».
«Even last year, in the summer, the numbers were back under control with very few infections – continues Della Mea – and we didn’t see the consequences of that“ free everyone ”immediately.
At the end of September, the data shot up again. But now we have some different conditions than last year.
The elderly and the frail have been vaccinated and the campaign is also involving younger people, those who travel more for work.
All this, together with the favorable climate, is helping to reduce the spread of the virus ».
«In short, all this bodes well – says the professor – but we must not pretend that the disease does not exist.
We must all strive to remain cautious. An attitude that has been paying off up to now, the numbers say ».
The look to the future that we are all giving, starting with politicians, could also lead to some innovations such as that of the revision of the Rt index which has so far measured the contagion capacity of an infected person.
Now we are thinking of replacing this parameter with the so-called “hospital RT” which more than contagions would measure hospital occupancy.
Also according to the president Massimiliano Fedriga it would be an index more suited to the new scenarios we are about to face.
“I’m not an epidemiologist – comments Della Mea -, but there are some considerations to make. If we look at the admissions data, it means that we keep under observation the numbers that are formed after the infection is transmitted.
In the event of a recurrence of the infection this would not be good. We would realize too late that the situation is getting worse.
But if, as is happening, the vaccination campaign proceeds and the numbers of positives are progressively lowered then we can neglect the aspect of new infections to concentrate precisely on that of the seriously ill. At this point the hospital RT would be adequate ».
Examining precisely the data of admissions for Covid in Friuli Venezia Giulia, we realize how things have radically changed in a few weeks.
On March 28, between intensive care units and medical areas, the region’s hospitals counted 746 Covid patients.
Sunday 16 May, after about fifty days, the sick were 88, almost ten times fewer. –
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