Last Thursday, September 14, the major prediction centers, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at NOAA, published the updated El Niño Oscillation forecast. of the South (ENSO).
In general terms, this forecast indicates that the phenomenon would continue to intensify, with a high probability that it will continue at least until the first quarter of 2024 (January, February, March).
Some data that clarify that El Niño continues to strengthen
According to NOAA’s forecast, El Niño is expected to remain at least until January-March 2024 and that this event will also peak as a strong El Niño this southern summer. Regarding this, several aspects provide signs of its permanence, let’s know some…
According to the analyzes collected in August, the anomalies in tropical temperatures were consistent with the El Niño phenomenon. Sea surface temperatures (SST) increased compared to July above the average throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean, showing a strengthening in the central and central-eastern Pacific.
On the other hand, in the month of August, the trade winds decreased in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which caused an increase in storm activity in the eastern area, extending from the international date line to the Pacific Ocean eastern, where these storms do not normally occur.
Signs of the atmosphere
The Southern Equatorial Oscillation Index and the Southern Oscillation Index are two measurements that monitor changes in air pressure at the surface of the Pacific between its western and eastern parts. In August, both indices recorded strong negative values, indicating weakening pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher than normal pressure in the west.
Rainfall has not only been above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but has also been below average in northern South America, Central America, and parts of Indonesia and India.
¿What indicates that we could have El Niño Fuerte?
According to the major prediction centers in their most recent forecast, they indicate that there is a 96% probability that El Niño will remain during the southern hemisphere summer (EFM) of 2023-24.
Furthermore, there is a 71% chance that the current event will peak as a “strong” El Niño, that is, with Niño-3.4 index values greater than 1.5˚C, for the November, December and January quarter. (NDE).
There are even some discussions that show a 30% chance that Niño-3.4 values will exceed 2.0˚C this summer, if this happens, ocean temperatures would be at the level of some stronger El Niño since 1950.
However, the fact that we are talking about a strong El Niño episode does not necessarily mean that there are strong El Niño impacts at the local level, but it does mean that it can increase the chances of certain extreme impacts occurring. You have to pay attention to the new October update to see the development of this forecast.