[ 整体而言，10月份二手房降价的城市达64个，占70个样本城市的超九成。 ]
The national property market continues to cool down. According to the latest official data, in October, the price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 52 cities fell from the previous month, and the second-hand housing prices in 64 cities fell from the previous month. The second-hand housing market is cooling down across the board, and the number of cities with monthly housing prices dropping is the most since 2015, and the market turning point has been established.
Specifically, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 15th, showing that second-hand housing prices in Guangzhou fell by 0.6% month-on-month in October, leading the decline in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities. The month-on-month declines in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.2%, respectively.
Second-tier cities have also cooled almost across the board, with the sales price of second-hand housing falling by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The sales price of second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage point larger than the previous month.
Judging from year-on-year data, second-hand housing prices in cities at all levels have also fallen. Among them, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 6.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month; second-tier cities increased by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; third-tier cities increased by 1.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month percentage point.
Overall, 64 cities saw second-hand housing price cuts in October, accounting for over 90% of the 70 sample cities. In the depression, only six cities, Dalian, Haikou, Chengdu, Ganzhou, Luoyang, and Sanya, did not see second-hand housing prices in October compared with the previous month; while Nanchong, Dali, Luzhou, Shaoguan, Mudanjiang and other places had the largest declines.
Industry experts believe that this wave of second-hand housing cooling is of a nationwide nature, and all types of urban second-hand housing are under pressure. The second-hand housing market usually cools down before the first-hand housing. After a slight decline in August this year, it has now fallen for three consecutive months.
Taking Beijing as an example, the data released by the Centaline Real Estate Research Center shows that in October 2021, the number of online second-hand housing in Beijing was 9,340, a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a month-on-month decrease of 25.7%. It is worth noting that this is the seventh consecutive month that the Beijing second-hand housing market has seen a decline in online signing, and it is the first time this year that it has fallen below 10,000 sets.
Zhuge Looking for Real Estate believes that despite the central government’s signal that the credit environment has improved, Beijing’s housing loan quota has not been significantly relaxed, and the transaction level of new and second-hand housing remains low. Especially in the second-hand housing market, due to the school district’s housing policy and the Haidian District’s implementation of second-hand housing guidance prices, the transaction enthusiasm was significantly lower than in the first half of the year.
It is worth noting that the pressure of the second-hand housing market will gradually be transmitted to the first-hand housing market. Due to the pressure of some landlords’ housing replacement, it will affect the de-distribution of some improved new housing projects. In October of this year, 52 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a month-on-month decline in the price of newly built commercial housing. In September, there were 27 cities, and 16 cities with new homes falling.
“The current price decline is the result of the decline in transaction volume. Since the second quarter, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has continued to decline, and the new house and land markets have also cooled down. The transaction volume continued to decline in October following September. The market overheated in the first quarter and housing prices in key cities The price has risen a lot, and the current price correction is a natural digestion of the previous overheating.” said Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the Shell Research Institute.
In addition, the simultaneous reduction of leverage on the demand side and supply side has also affected the performance of housing prices in various regions. On the demand side, since the second half of the year, the amount of residential mortgage loans has shrunk and demand has weakened. On the supply side, under greater operating pressure, real estate companies have increased the intensity and scope of price cuts and promotions. The willingness of second-hand housing owners to reduce prices has increased, and price reduction behaviors have increased.
It is worth noting that there will still be downward pressure on housing prices in the future. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the current boom index of second-hand housing in 50 cities is within 20, and owners’ expectations are weak. Xu Xiaole believes that in order to speed up sales before the end of the year, developers of new houses still have the motivation to continue to reduce prices in the later period. There is still a certain amount of pressure to reduce prices in the short-term, but the magnitude is relatively stable. Return to Sohu to see more
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