And then just look at Great Britain to understand that everything will be fine. But is it really so, or does the paradigm of many infections but few troubles risk creaking there too? “Because it’s true that vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalizations and deaths by a factor of ten. But if the epidemic gets too high, the problems reappear, from school to hospitals to the supply chain. We see it these days in the United Kingdom ». Alessandro Vespignani, a Roman physicist, expert in epidemic propagation models at Northeastern University in Boston, premieres: «The situation has improved enormously with vaccines. But making predictions has become more difficult ». Immunized or not, Alfa variant and Delta variant, those who have the Green Pass and those who contest it in the square, closed discos but cheering and giant screens.
Where are we in the epidemic?
“In phase two, for sure. With vaccines, nothing is the same as before. But the picture was filled with variables and nuances. The queue will be long and will have to be managed with intelligence ».
How will the epidemic proceed?
«It has been more than two months that epidemiologists have anticipated the risks of the Delta variant. And today in Italy the infections double every 7-10 days. It is likely that there are tens of thousands of cases a day as in England, even if the variables are too many to make precise estimates. Maybe the holidays help slow down the ride. But if the virus still has a strong start in September we risk seeing the numbers go up a lot “.
But will vaccines protect the frail and the dead will not rise?
Vaccines reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 5-10 times. But only among the vaccinated. And the proportionality with respect to the infections remains. With a small factor, but stay. Thanks to vaccines today we can handle more cases, but we can’t handle everything. An excessive number of infections can bring back hospitals in distress. It is the scenario that must be avoided, we know this from the beginning of the pandemic. The British have set a hundred thousand cases a day as their threshold, but they are starting to have problems right now, and they are far from it. These numbers seem enormous, but if the cases continue to double every 7-10 days, we have to be careful ».
Careful how? Returning to restrictions is now impossible. What levers do we have in case of trouble?
«Vaccinate quickly, keep the masks, which all in all are the most bearable measure, be careful with big events, take advantage of the Green Pass tool. And use our responsibility. In this uncertain and complex phase, with the rules that are gradually being relaxed but the virus is circulating a lot, our choices take on enormous importance ».
We chose the hospitalization indicator to decide on restrictive measures. It’s a good idea?
“It’s a late indicator. When those bells are turned on, any surgery is likely to be effective only after a couple of weeks. And instead we have to play in advance ».
Is it right to insist on vaccination?
“We see it here in America. There were 36% of vaccination coverage, while above 60% above all in the North-East. Cases are increasing everywhere, but it is as if they were two different epidemics ».
Our government is concerned about the reopening of schools.
“In Great Britain, the increase in infections occurred in a period of open schools. The decision to lift the restrictions on July 19 was linked to the end of the lessons. The question of whether the Delta variant is more contagious to children has received varied and multifaceted answers. But certainly a strain that is capable of infecting more in general will tend to do so even among school-age youngsters. The answer is to vaccinate, wear masks, keep your distance. And try not to arrive in September with the epidemic accelerating ».
In England they have seen that repeated screenings at school protect better than dad.
“Further studies would be needed. In any case, we have been talking about tests since last year and then we don’t do them ».
Last year we got into the nightclubs. Is this year the fault of the Europeans?
“Four or five matches of Italy have brought together millions of fans across the country and could have had an impact. But the real problem is the Delta variant, and it is for all countries ».
How will it end?
“We will not achieve herd immunity on a specific date. We won’t have a liberation day. Things will get better and better, but with nuances, data that are difficult to interpret, the constant possibility of a variant that will surprise us. And still much need of attention ».
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