Home » Prevent the US military from intervening in the Taiwan Strait war?Expert: The Communist Army does not have this capability | Liaoning Ship | Attack on Taiwan

Prevent the US military from intervening in the Taiwan Strait war?Expert: The Communist Army does not have this capability | Liaoning Ship | Attack on Taiwan

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Prevent the US military from intervening in the Taiwan Strait war?Expert: The Communist Army does not have this capability | Liaoning Ship | Attack on Taiwan

[Epoch Times, May 25, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Wu Minzhou, Taiwan Taipei reported) The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for three months. The CCP’s “Liaoning Ship” recently conducted a long-term training exercise in the waters of the Western Pacific. Take the opportunity to attack Taiwan? Military expert Ma Zhenkun said on the 25th that if the Communist Party of China wants to launch military operations against Taiwan, it must have three anti-access capabilities against the United States.

The CCP’s Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group will head to the western Pacific waters from May 1, and conduct multi-day carrier-based aircraft take-off and landing exercises off the eastern coast of Taiwan. During this period, there were several co-aircraft passing through the Bashi Strait, and even armed helicopters passing through the central line of the Taiwan Strait, which attracted attention.

The National Policy Research Institute held a symposium on the “ASEAN, US-Japan-South Korea and Quad Summit” on the 25th, and invited a number of experts to analyze the recent international situation.

Ma Zhenkun, director of the Institute of Military Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party at the National Defense University, said that two recent events have attracted international attention in the Taiwan Strait. The first is that the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war was beyond expectations, which reminds people of possible changes in the security of the Taiwan Strait; the second is that the CCP The large-scale formation of the ship “Liaoning” assembled in the eastern waters of Taiwan, arousing everyone’s attention to the security of the Taiwan Strait.

Intention and ability to attack Taiwan are two things

There has been public attention. Did the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war affect the CCP’s idea of ​​using force against Taiwan in advance? And will the CCP use large-scale training to invade Taiwan?

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Ma Zhenkun said that this issue consists of two levels. Whether the CCP uses force against Taiwan in advance is an “intent”, which belongs to the political issue of the CCP Central Committee; The two belong to different levels. If the formation of the Liaoning is regarded as affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is necessary to invade Taiwan by force in advance. This is to confuse the two, which will affect the national army’s army building plan at light, and may lead to misjudgment at worst. Fired the gun.

Regarding the CCP’s intention to invade Taiwan, Ma Zhenkun said that the Russian-Ukrainian war has cost Russia a heavy price. No matter what the final result is, Russia’s losses far outweigh its gains, and its comprehensive national strength will accelerate its decline. And Chinese President Xi Jinping also sees it in his eyes, and understands that military means to solve political problems will not be tolerated by the international community, and that it will cost all-round comprehensive national strength damage.

He said that the CCP claimed that the use of force against Taiwan was a military action to solve internal problems, but from the experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the international community would only consider it to be an aggression because Taiwan is not under the effective rule of the CCP.

The Russian-Ukrainian war will not make the CCP increase its intention to invade Taiwan

In addition, the CCP has no actual combat experience for 30 years. Ma Zhenkun said that the CCP’s analysis of the situation in the Taiwan Strait and its declared combat strength have not been verified. With the lessons learned from the Russian-Ukrainian war, Xi Jinping will even more question the situation proposed by the army. Analysis and combat assessment. Therefore, he speculates that the Russian-Ukrainian war will not increase the CCP’s intention to commit crimes against Taiwan, and the status quo in the Taiwan Strait will not change significantly.

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Ma Zhenkun also emphasized that the CCP’s policy toward Taiwan has been changed from “harmonious reunification” to “military reunification”, which is a major strategic change, because the all-round mobilization of the party, government and military systems must be discussed through the Politburo of the CCP, not Xi Jinping himself. There is absolutely no possibility that the CCP will suddenly launch an attack-style military operation against Taiwan.

As for the ability of the Communist army to attack Taiwan, Ma Zhenkun said that the Liaoning fleet is the largest in history, the most powerful, and the closest to eastern Taiwan. It is a real threat to Taiwan, but if the Communist army wants to launch military operations against Taiwan, it must It must first have the capability of anti-access operations against the United States, which must include three capabilities: deterrence in peacetime, deterrence of conflicts, and combat strikes.

He said that the CCP is actively building the capability of conflict containment at this stage, but in the Western Pacific region, the CCP’s combat capability is not as good as that of the U.S. military, which is also an important premise and key to assessing whether the CCP has the capability to attack Taiwan; There are also military support from Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. in the region, which the Communist Army does not have.

Ma Zhenkun analyzed that the training of the Liaoning ship this time is a part of the preparations for the Chinese military’s military struggle against Taiwan. It does not have the ability and intention to attack Taiwan now.

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He said that at this stage, the National Army is paying close attention to the movements of various naval and air aircraft and ships in the training of the Chinese military, because this may reveal the combat mode adopted by the Chinese military.

Xi Jinping’s goal remains smooth re-election

Ma Zhenkun speculated that the security situation in the Taiwan Strait will continue to be tense and heating up, because the CCP’s military capabilities have indeed continued to grow, but the Russian-Ukrainian war has made the CCP face a more complicated international situation. , and will avoid becoming another Russia and putting itself in danger of internal and external coercion.

Guo Yuren, executive director of the Academy of National Policy Studies, added that the Liaoning had been training for a long time in the eastern waters of Taiwan. After US President Biden had just left Asia, the Liaoning entered the East China Sea again, but was outflanked by US ships from north to south. It seems that the Liaoning is only a training ship and does not have actual combat capabilities. If it encounters the “Reagan” or “Lincoln” ship strike group, it will be like a dwarf encountering a giant, and it will be very funny.

Responsible editor: Lu Meiqi#

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