[Qin Peng live broadcast]Three secrets behind the chaos caused by power outages in many provinces across the country | China power outage | Wang Qishan | Canada + Meng Wanzhou

Three major mysteries behind the chaos of power outages in many provinces in China

Sydney: The impact of China’s “power cuts” continues to expand. More than a dozen provinces, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, have been affected. Recently, it has caused chaos in the Northeast. Industries ranging from heavy industry to light industry and solar energy are all affected. Of course, unannounced power outages in residential areas also add to the troubles of ordinary people who are already struggling.

Frequent accidents have continued for a week

The Shenyang Public Credit Bureau said that because of the huge power gap, in order to ensure the safety of the power grid, power supply is restricted. Jilin City Xinbei Water Affairs Company issued a message saying that in accordance with the requirements of the State Grid, electricity must be used in an orderly manner, and there will be irregular, irregular, unplanned, and unannounced power cuts. This situation will continue until March 2022.

Qin Peng: Yes. We have seen that this wave of power rationing has not only caused factory shutdowns or holidays in many places, affecting production, but also seen a lot of chain incidents. For example, many people have no choice but to go to the streets to find food because of power outages; Liaoning caused 23 people to be poisoned with gas; a number of traffic lights in Shenyang also suddenly went out of power, causing traffic chaos.

Sydney: We have seen that the food in the refrigerator has deteriorated due to power outages in some families. A family of three had to send to the hospital for treatment because the exhaust fan at home was unable to operate due to a power outage, resulting in gas poisoning. In some hospitals, patients cannot undergo surgery due to power outages. People living in high-rise buildings have to walk up and downstairs. Also, a pregnant woman told Caixin.com that she had climbed 24 floors by herself. The Northeast region, where the lowest temperature has dropped below freezing, is also facing a sad winter.

In Changchun, there was an accident. When the Ferris wheel turned in mid-air, there was a sudden power outage, and many people got stuck in the air. Let’s take a look at the video.

Qin Peng: The trouble caused by the power cuts that have lasted for a week has not only shown no signs of stopping, but has intensified. Sudden power outages in many parts of the Northeast have not been notified, which has affected the lives of residents. In some places, there are power outages several times a day, and in some places there are more than 12 hours of power outages. Most of the outage areas are concentrated in prefecture-level cities and rural areas.

On September 27, the party media “People’s Daily” issued a statement from the State Grid, stating: Adhere to the people as the center and go all out to ensure safety and livelihood to ensure power supply. The hidden meaning is that the people’s livelihood is first on the one hand, and it is just a word of protection. It seems that it is still unknown. While emphasizing the protection of people’s livelihood, it also implies that there may be difficulties in protecting industrial electricity.

The forecast continues until October-December. Large-scale power outages attract international attention

In addition, Fujian Province’s power generation official documents leaked on the Internet show that the province’s electric power department predicts that there will be a large power shortage from October to December.

Sydney: The continued power rationing also made many people who were immersed in Meng Wanzhou’s return to China sober from joy, especially in the northeast region, which has always been known for its party-loving and patriotic people. As a beginning question: Is it the industrial renaissance that everyone buys a generator? “Isn’t the next scene like’each family bring their own generators, don’t care about others’ candle light’?” “Are we living in North Korea?”

Qin Peng: One incident happened in the past two days. A Weibo by Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, was turned over. It was scolding Taiwan’s blackout. Hu Xijin proudly said that the blackout was serious. Accident. Taiwan’s population is not as large as Shanghai’s. If a developed province or a megacities on the mainland suffers a power outage “for no reason” every four years, it would be a joke to think about it. He also said that Taiwan is in charge of politics and that Taiwan is already a dangerous building.

Sydney: Unexpectedly, his statement will be fulfilled so quickly in more than a dozen provinces and cities in China. Some netizens said that what Hu Xijin laughs at is what China suffers. They gave examples: Hu Xijin laughed at the collapse of an apartment in Florida this year, and as a result, the Suzhou hotel in China collapsed; criticized the German flood, and as a result the Zhengzhou flood came. Many netizens hope that Hu Xijin will stop “crow’s mouth”.

I saw that some netizens gave Hu Xijin’s Weibo to change the homework, saying that Taiwan should be changed to the CCP. The last paragraph should be changed to: “Don’t look at the bluff of the Communist authorities, the CCP is actually a dangerous building. When the time comes, as long as the people Take a breath and it will collapse.”

Qin Peng: Well, this large-scale continuous power outage has also aroused international attention. Japanese media said that the power outage in Northeast China caused chaos, and Reuters also quoted expert opinions that China’s economic growth prospects are bleak. Nomura brokerage analysts lowered China’s GDP growth forecast in 2021 from 8.2% to 7.7%.

Sydney: Of course, many people are asking, how did this large-scale power generation happen? There are different opinions now. Some say that power plants are under-operated because of the shortage of electricity and coal; some people suspect that sports energy-saving and emission reduction have occurred in many provinces. Because the emission reduction target in the third quarter of this year was not reached, they were forced to Those high-pollution, high-energy-consuming chemical, textile and other industries are conducting power cuts, which is a man-made disaster.

Of course, some people say that this is a big drama arranged by the high-level CCP. There is still a popular term on the Internet, and they call this kind of self-media that is a big game of high-level chess regardless of what happens in China. A big chess party.

So, what is going on, let’s analyze it today.

There are many main reasons for power curtailment

Let’s first talk about the issue of thermal coal, also called thermal coal. Now some people claim that the main reason for power curtailment is the shortage of thermal coal. Qin Peng, according to your research, how did this shortage cause it? Most people believe that this is related to the CCP’s request to investigate the virus and restrict Australian coal imports in retaliation against Australia. What do you think?

Qin Peng: The main sources of China’s thermal coal/thermal coal are Australia and Indonesia. In 2019, 57% came from Australia. In the past year, these prices have risen by more than 100%. Among them, Australia’s Newcastle Port Index is the price benchmark for thermal coal in the Asian market. It was around US$170 per ton in late August. It is now quoted at more than US$166 per metric ton. The lowest point at the beginning of September 2020 is US$46.18. It now seems to be close to 2008. The all-time high since July 195.20.

Thermal coal prices have soared to near historical highs this year. An important reason is the shrinking export volume and stagnant supply from Indonesia, the world‘s third largest producer. As the Indonesian government failed to comply with the obligation of supplying (Indonesia) domestic demand for 25% of its output, the Indonesian government “banned the export of more than 30 coal companies”.

Another reason is the rapid growth of demand due to the intense heat and economic recovery in many parts of the world this summer. For example, the China Weather Network reported on the 24th that “autumn tigers” are rare in the south, and many places may break the record of continuous high temperature in late September.

So why enters September, the summer ends and grows again? This is because China, the largest demander, has entered the winter and stockpiled. Therefore, it is not entirely due to the CCP’s angrily and violent sanctions against Australia.

Of course, there are also reasons for sanctions. There are several factors in this: First, on the surface, almost no Australian coal is imported now, but most of the Australian coal is re-exported from other countries, or Australian coal is sold. There is an additional procedure, of course. Price increase

Second, in order to grab Chinese customers, many businesses will also snap up Australian coal to raise prices, and then pass it on to Chinese domestic users;

The third factor is the hoarding factor. Looking at Gong Shengli, a researcher from a think tank in mainland China said that the reduction in coal inventory is also a reason. Scramble for coal. This will continue until the last quarter. Now it is also in the dry season, and hydropower cannot be carried out.”

Last winter, the power cut was caused by sanctions against Australia

The power cuts in many places last winter were caused by the sanctions against Australia. This winter is expected to be very tense.

Sydney: In other words, it is definitely wrong for the Chinese Communist Party to state that the current electricity rationing has nothing to do with Australia.

Some people say that the current lack of electricity is because power plants cannot increase their electricity prices. Therefore, the more power they generate, the more they lose, so many power plants are flat. Why can’t electricity prices rise?

Qin Peng: Last year, China’s thermal coal futures price was 500 yuan/ton, this year it has risen to more than 1,250 yuan/ton, which is 2.5 times that of last year this year. Such a high increase, the authorities believe that if the same rises, it will trigger inflation. Pass it to the consumer and production end. Therefore, let the power plant digest it, and of course the power plant will passively resist.

In fact, this situation can still be resolved. The most direct and effective way is to directly remove the sanctions imposed on Australian coal by the Chinese Communist Party and open up imports, so that the price of thermal coal can be lowered. There is another solution, that is, special subsidies for government power plants. In addition, in China’s power industry, the power plant and the grid are separated, and the power grid is short of fertilizer. The price increase of electric coal should allow the power grid to absorb part of the cost, but because the power grid is monopolized by state-owned enterprises, the power grid does not work.

Sydney: There are also pink economists and some self-media said that the purpose of the power outage is to make the United States collapse.

Qin Peng: Thinking about this is a joke. The current sanctions against Australia have caused the price of thermal coal to skyrocket. Power plants and the relevant government departments of the Chinese Communist Party are in a dilemma. Many places have ordered the reduction of the start date, and the company has suffered great losses. If the order cannot be completed on time, it will also lose its reputation… Cause loss of customers. How did the United States collapse?

Moreover, those people said that they wanted to force inflation in the United States, and let the paper-like dollars issued as toilet paper. Tell me, let them have the leaders’ dollars to me.

Sydney: Yes, some netizens refute this. Whenever a problem arises, they preach that it is Zhongnanhai’s so-called overall view of the next big chess game, also called the conspiracy theory of the big chess view, saying, why every time you (the CCP) beat someone At that time, all the pain is myself?

Qin Peng: Yes. In order to win those pink eyeballs, the self-media completely ignored the facts. Today I saw someone mocking these big chess theorists and saying:

Liangjiahe Primary School is affiliated with Tsinghua University and there is only one college-Daqi Academy.
There is only one department in this college-the Grand Chess Department,
There is only one major in this department-Daqi major, and probably Xiaopin graduated from this major.
After graduation, people asked: “What occupation do you do?” Answer: “I play big chess.”

Wang Qishan shakes the Sino-US chess game?

Sydney: I also saw that the South China Morning Post recently disclosed that John Thornton, a Wall Street veteran, had secretly visited China as a communication channel between the United States and China, comparing Thornton to Kissinger. Let’s also discuss the trade between China and the United States.

On the 27th, the South China Morning Post first reported that Thornton, the executive chairman of Barrick Gold Corporation and former Goldman Sachs president, visited Beijing in late August this year and met with Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng. He not only went to Xinjiang in spite of the opposition of the White House, but also It is recommended that China change the English statement that the United States requires it to achieve a carbon peak in 2030 from “by 2030” to “before 2030” to appease the United States.

The report mentioned that Thornton can enjoy different access treatments from other foreigners, and use this to pass information between the highest levels of the United States and China, which is comparable to the secret visit of former US Secretary of State Kissinger to China in 1971. Lift.

Thornton meets with Wang Qishan, Liu He and others in Beijing

On the 28th, the South China Morning Post went on to report that shortly after Biden took office, Thornton met with Wang Qishan in Beijing and had an in-depth conversation. Thornton told him that some of the priorities of the U.S. government are to contain the epidemic, revitalize the economy, and so on. Then he also said that Xi Jinping’s personal friendship with Biden may be able to repair the relationship between the two countries, including trade.

Thornton also met with Liu He and Yang Jiechi. It was reported that Thornton facilitated the call between Liu He and Katherine Tai, the U.S. Trade Representative in June.

The South China Morning Post quoted sources as saying that Thornton’s role is similar to Kissinger’s visit to China more than 50 years ago. We know that Kissinger’s visit to China led to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and the CCP, giving China a chance for more than 40 years of peace and development, and giving the CCP its current international and economic status. Qin Peng, do you think that John Thornton’s role might be that great?

Qin Peng: Kissinger was the national security adviser to the then U.S. President Nixon. He visited China in 1971, which later caused the Western free world led by the United States to open up to the CCP, causing the country to fall into the Cultural Revolution and close to the economic collapse. The CCP, which had been antagonistic with the United States and the Soviet Union, was able to renew its life. Later, the US President’s China policy basically continued Kissinger’s proposal until it was reversed during the Trump (Trump) era. It can be said that Kissinger has made great contributions to the CCP’s economic and political achievements today.

John Thornton’s analysis and dissemination of the United States, and the relevant suggestions, are indeed like a blow in the snow when the CCP is once again in a difficult period of antagonism with the United States. However, it is impossible for the free world to join forces against the CCP to reverse it. Therefore, although his words are helpful to the CCP, they are only a little continuation of life and cannot reach the point of fundamentally changing Sino-US relations. To say that his interview is as valuable as Kissinger’s, I think it is too exaggerated.

Sydney: In addition, according to the report, Wang Qishan told Thornton, “To understand China and China’s history, present and future, the United States first needs to understand the Chinese Communist Party.” He mentioned that China does not have democratic elections. Wang Qishan argued that the party is What the people call “choices” and the people support the party.

Qin Peng, what do you think of what Wang Qishan said? Does he really think so? Or is it just for Thornton?

Qin Peng: I don’t think Wang Qishan really thinks that way. In fact, CCP officials often have different personalities in private and in public. Even if he is a democracy supporter, when speaking for the party, he will speak with integrity and sing praises for the party.

As for the history of the CCP, it is all lies and deceit when it is opened up. Whether it is the Chinese people or the people of the world, after understanding, the only possible result can only and should be spurned and abandoned. 2015 was the 100th anniversary of Hu Yaobang, the former general secretary of the Communist Party of China. Overseas scholars recalled that in a speech given by Hu Yaobang in February 1978, he mentioned that “if the people know the history of our Communist Party, the people will rise up and overthrow us.” And 80% of the people in the United States now have a bad feeling about the CCP, precisely because they have learned more and more about the true face of the CCP.

When did the Chinese people choose the Communist Party? There are no votes. Moreover, if the wrong choice is made, can’t it be re-elected?

Wang Qishan: I hope the Biden administration can transform the relationship between the two countries

Sydney: Wang Qishan blamed Trump in his conversation and told Thornton that he hoped that the Biden administration could change the relationship between the two countries, and then hoped that the United States would “get a good understanding of China” instead of continuing to decouple. He also said, “Now it’s the United States.”

However, reports say that the Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s tough policies since taking office.

Qin Peng: Yes. As former U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo’s chief China adviser Yu Maochun said, U.S. policy toward China is fundamentally determined by the Chinese Communist Party itself. The Chinese Communist Party is evil…

Sydney: Judging from this report, what the outside world said is that Wall Street can be said to represent the shadow government of the United States, and it deals with the CCP in private. Is that correct?

Qin Peng: Some people say that Wall Street is half the US government. I think this statement is more accurate. Of course, during Trump’s period, there was basically no listening to Wall Street, but it also had a certain impact, as can be seen from the process and streaks of the US-China trade negotiations.

When Xi Jinping gave a speech at the UN General Assembly, he first emphasized that the CCP will join hands with the world to fight the epidemic, and then talked about the CCP’s contribution to development and climate change. This may be related to Thornton’s ideas for Han Zheng. Because in the meeting with Han Zheng, Thornton told him the measures the Biden administration hopes China would take on the issue of climate change, and told the Chinese that he believes that Kerry is not only a key figure in climate negotiations, but also a key figure in the overall US-China relationship. Wait.

Wall Street is now divided into two factions

Of course, Wall Street is now divided into two factions. For example, Soros now advocates being tougher on the CCP in many things, thinking that Xi Jinping’s China is the return of Maoism, Xi Jinping is the most dangerous enemy of an open society, and all Chinese are its victims; He is now suppressing private enterprises, and Wall Street Capital’s investment in China will regret it. These two aspects are also playing games. In addition, the chairman of the US Securities Regulatory Commission also mentioned the need to clean up Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States.

But overall, Wall Street is profitable. They are unwilling to touch the CCP fundamentally, but hope to return to the model of Deng Xiaoping’s era.

Sydney: It can be seen that the previous relationship between the two countries is not only the decision-making of the leaders, but also involves the interference of these stakeholders. In many cases, it is not easy to see clearly.

Qin Peng: Yes. There are many different interest groups behind the US government. Some are demanding to be tough on the CCP, but some may lead to relaxation of the CCP. We have said many times since Biden came to power that the leftist government came up with the so-called climate change plan to tie their necks, because this would require the CCP, and of course the CCP would negotiate terms for it.

The White House: Xi Jinping mentioned the case of Meng Wanzhou during the phone call with Biden

I saw two days ago that some people said that the negotiation process behind the hostage exchange incident between Meng Wanzhou and Canada may also have the shadow of Wall Street. They hope that through these incidents, Sino-US relations can be eased, and then financial and trade transactions can be better conducted. I think this aspect still needs to be observed, because we said in the program on Friday that Meng Wanzhou signed an agreement similar to admitting criminal facts in exchange for personal freedom (DPA, deferred prosecution agreement), which is not an agreement for Huawei. The good news is that the United States may therefore increase its efforts to deal with Huawei. Let’s continue to observe and see how this is. No matter what, Meng Wanzhou will not be able to go abroad freely in the future.

Sydney: On the 27th, White House spokesman Jen Psaki also confirmed that Xi Jinping and U.S. President Biden mentioned the Meng Wanzhou case and two Canadian citizens detained by the Chinese government during the call on the 9th of this month. Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig.

Of course, in this case, the United States obtained evidence that Meng Wanzhou admitted that Huawei had committed a crime. The US Department of Justice said that it would continue to pursue Huawei’s case. The Canadians were also released, so the United States and Canada had won. On the contrary, it was the CCP. Because the release of Canadians was proved to be engaged in hostage diplomacy, the international reputation is getting worse and worse. Meng Wanzhou returned to China to celebrate, perform nationalism, and conceal the content of the agreement, which was also seen internationally. Canadian Foreign Minister Marc Garneau said on the 26th that the CCP media reports are mainly used for local propaganda.

Qin Peng: Yes. The CCP previously denied hostage diplomacy. Through this exchange of detainees, the evil nature of the CCP’s hostage diplomacy has actually been confirmed. In the long run, it is also a bad thing for the CCP’s international image.

Production Team of “Qin Peng Live”

Editor in charge: Li Hao #