Quad Security Dialogue: Leaders of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan hold talks focusing on Taiwan, semiconductor supply chain and vaccine distribution-BBC News

Professor Jin Defang believes that Taiwan will definitely appear in the discussion, but because Beijing views the Taiwan issue as extremely sensitive, even Washington’s mention of the name Taiwan would be regarded as a provocation, so it is unlikely that Taiwan affairs will be emphasized in a formal joint statement. .

But she believes that how to help Taiwan resist China must be an important part of the closed-door discussion.

Jin Defang said that it is expected that many “euphemisms about the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, the commitment to a free and open Pacific, and the observance of international law” will be heard at the “Quadruple Security Dialogue” and other meetings.

“All of these are aimed at China.” She expects to hear discussions about humanitarian relief and disaster relief. “This has always been a simple alternative to military exercises.”

Since March this year, the United States and other Western countries have repeatedly mentioned the Taiwan issue when meeting Asian leaders. The “2+2” diplomatic and defense minister-level talks held in Tokyo in March between the United States and Japan emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait for the first time in a joint statement; subsequently, the US-South Korea summit and the EU-Japan summit held in May, And important leaders’ summits such as the G7 summit in June emphasized the “importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Lin Quanzhong, an East Asian international relations scholar and a doctor of law from the University of Tokyo, also said in a BBC Chinese visit that the leaders of the four countries will definitely mention the Taiwan issue this time.

Lin Quanzhong said that the online meeting of senior officials of the four countries on August 12 was a “warm-up meeting” for the leaders of this meeting, in which the “importance of peace and security in the Taiwan Strait” was discussed. He said that he noticed that the consultation meeting at that time was different from the “peace and stability” mentioned in previous summits and raised the issue of peace in the Taiwan Strait to the issue of “Taiwan security.”

“This four-party summit is likely to continue the August statement, referring to ensuring peace, stability, and cooperation in security in the Indo-Pacific region,” Lin Quanzhong said, which may specifically involve the institutionalization of military exercises.

The “Quadruple Security Dialogue” was established in response to the South Asian tsunami that occurred at the end of 2004. At that time, it was designed to allow four countries to coordinate the distribution of humanitarian relief supplies. The four countries held a meeting in 2007, but a year later, the mechanism was disbanded. In the following years, China’s strength in the Indo-Pacific region has increased sharply, and it has become increasingly tough on matters such as the South China Sea, making the United States feel that its influence is threatened. The “four-party security dialogue mechanism” was restarted.

Lin Quanzhong said that in terms of geographical location, Japan and India are located on the east and west sides of China, and Australia is on the south. The three countries “are important fulcrums for encircling the South China Sea.” Therefore, the “quartet mechanism” is Washington’s promotion of its Indo-Pacific strategy. “Excellent platform.”

From 2017 to 2020, officials of the four countries met five times, including in October last year, with the support of the Trump administration, the four countries held a face-to-face meeting of foreign ministers. In March of this year, the leaders of the four countries held an online meeting, which is considered a “leapfrog development” of the partnership between the four countries. The joint statement after the meeting did not explicitly mention China, but it called for the establishment of a “free, open, tolerant, healthy, democratic value-based region, free from coercion.”

Some analysts believe that the “quartet mechanism” is forming a clear agenda to deal with China’s rise.

“The function and positioning of the’quartet mechanism’ is becoming clearer,” said Lin Quanzhong. He believes that Biden attaches great importance to strengthening the functions of the “quartet mechanism” platform, especially in terms of security and military cooperation. “However, due to the reservations of the member states, Japan and India, the’quartet mechanism’ is more inclined to work in the non-military field at this stage. Promote cooperation.”

In mid-April, Biden invited Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to visit. He was the first foreign leader to visit the White House after he took office. This shows how much Washington attaches importance to Japan. This revisit to the White House is also Yoshihide Suga’s last foreign visit before leaving office. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election is in full swing in Japan, and a new prime minister will be ushered in on the 24th of this month. However, Japan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Motegi has previously emphasized that no matter who will serve as the next president and prime minister of the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan’s efforts to strengthen the Japan-US alliance will not change.

According to a report from Nikki Asia on the 18th, the leaders of the four countries will also reach an agreement on the establishment of a secure semiconductor supply chain at this Quad summit, once again highlighting the cooperation with Taiwan.

“Taiwan has an advantage in the semiconductor industry chain, and the four countries will use this advantage to contain China”，Lin Quanzhong said. He predicted that this aspect will become the “substantial progress” promoted by this Quad summit, and it will also be another battlefield for the U.S. and China to compete for influence.

According to a draft joint statement obtained by Nikkei, the leaders of the four countries are expected to make it clear that “a flexible, diversified and secure hardware, software and service technology supply chain” is essential to the common interests of the four countries.

This document establishes the unified principle of the four countries in terms of technological development, that is, “The design, development, management and use of technology should be determined in accordance with our common democratic values ​​and respect for universal human rights.”

According to the draft obtained by the Nikkei, the leaders of the four countries almost pointed their fingers at China, saying that “illegal transfer or theft of technology is their common challenge. These actions have undermined the foundation of global technological development and need to be addressed. Technology should not be misused or misused by the authoritarian system. Abuse in surveillance, oppression and other activities.”

Specifically, the four countries hope to take joint actions to “understand the production capacity of semiconductors and their key components, identify their vulnerabilities, and strengthen supply chain security.”

According to Reuters, from the perspective of contract foundry sales, Taiwanese companies accounted for 73% of global semiconductor contract revenues, the United States accounted for 10%, China accounted for 7%, South Korea accounted for 6%, and Japanese and Singaporean companies each accounted for 2%. In addition, TSMC (full name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.), a leading global foundry company, also manufactures almost all of the world‘s high-end semiconductors.

“Therefore, it is imperative to include Taiwan in the safe supply chain,” said Professor Jin Defang.

TSMC is currently discussing the establishment of a fab in the United States. “This is a beginning,” Jin Defang said. “If the financing details are resolved, it will take a big step towards establishing a secure supply chain.”

She also said that China’s espionage activities are very effective in many areas, including high-end military technology, so how to maintain the security of the technology is of concern. However, “in any case, Taiwan’s dominant position in the semiconductor industry is Make it an important part of any supply chain.”

Lin Quanzhong believes that “Taiwan does not rule out further enacting regulations to restrict the flow of semiconductor technology to mainland China, and Japan will play a very important role in technological cooperation with Taiwan. This is also the main intention of Biden to actively win over and attach importance to Japan. .”

According to the draft obtained by Nikkei, the four countries will also cooperate in preventing the leakage of technology that directly affects national security capabilities. The document states, “We are advancing the development of safe, open and transparent 5G and networks other than 5G.”

How to promote the global distribution and cooperation of the new crown vaccine is also the focus of this Quad summit.

Before Indian Prime Minister Modi arrived in the United States, the Indian Minister of Health stated that the export of the new crown vaccine would be resumed next month. This move may break the global vaccine supply map currently dominated by China and the United States. How India will cooperate with the United States to counter China’s influence on vaccine diplomacy is expected to be discussed at this Quad summit.

India is a major vaccine producer and once the largest contributor to the international new crown vaccine implementation plan COVAX. But a few months ago, a large-scale infection broke out in the country and the export of vaccines to the world was terminated. India’s withdrawal has given China a dominant position in vaccine diplomacy in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

Recently, the game between the United States and China in vaccine supply has heated up again.

On Wednesday, at the New Crown Epidemic Video Summit held outside the United Nations General Assembly, Biden announced that it would increase the supply of vaccines overseas and donate 500 million doses of vaccines produced by Pfizer. This will allow the United States to donate more than 1 billion doses of vaccines. Biden promised in May of this year that the United States would become the “arms of vaccines in the world,” but many public health experts criticized the lack of results so far.

When the United Nations General Assembly convened this week, Biden urged vaccine-producing countries to balance domestic demand and distribute vaccines to poor countries that desperately need vaccines. White House officials said the move is designed to increase the urgency of vaccine diplomacy and will test whether Biden can advance US interests by establishing a global alliance.

China has also increased the supply of vaccines. Chinese President Xi Jinping promised at the United Nations General Assembly on the 21st that he would donate another 100 million doses of vaccine to developing countries within this year. Previously, Beijing had promised to provide 2 billion doses of vaccines this year and donate 100 million U.S. dollars to COVEX.