At least things are clear now. After the stop for “maintenance” of the Nord stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany, Moscow discovers the cards: no more deliveries will be made through the pipeline until the sanctions against Russia are canceled.
This moment was expected and feared since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24th. The 27 countries of the European Union have begun to break away from Russian gas, but have allowed Moscow to take the initiative to turn off the taps. Europeans have been criticized for failing to act early and for continuing to pay millions of euros to Russia.
But the equation was simple: many European countries, starting with Germany, have actually made the mistake of becoming dependent on Russian gas. So breaking away from it overnight would have been like shooting yourself in the foot. Paradoxically, Russia too has hesitated to impose counter-sanctions. He ultimately decided to do so on September 5th by acting on Nord stream 1, but he still hasn’t cut off supplies through other routes.
Considerable reduction
The Russian announcement did not cause panic, because European countries did not wait for this decision without doing anything: on 5 September, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the percentage of Russian gas compared to total European needs has gone from 50 per percent recorded before the war to the current 9 percent. This is a considerable reduction, particularly on the part of Germany.
The 27 have started a process of diversifying their supply and filled their storage centers on average to 80 percent (92-93 percent in France) in anticipation of winter. This means that Moscow no longer has the possibility of geopolitical blackmail on gas.
From this reality comes the exultation of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission: “Putin uses energy as a weapon. He will fail. Europe will prevail ”. A statement that comes at a time when Moscow’s friends are trying to open a debate on the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia.
The question of the effects of sanctions is clearly legitimate, in Russia as elsewhere. But the way in which the debate is set by the far right, in Italy and France, aims to take advantage of concerns about rising bills and inflation. In Prague over the weekend, the far right involved tens of thousands of people in a protest with the slogan “Czechia first”.
Russian propaganda is working in the same direction, trying to convince Europeans that sanctions do them more harm than Russia.
Nobody was under any illusions: sanctions are not the panacea for changing Putin’s strategy on Ukraine. But the fact remains that the Russian GDP is falling, even if Moscow’s coffers are not empty and the ruble continues to resist. If the measures were useless as it insinuates, Moscow would not have had to resort to gas blackmail. In view of a dangerous winter, the war of nerves has just begun.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)