Home » Sociologist Ihor Eidman spoke about the possibility of a handsome man seizing power in Belarus

Sociologist Ihor Eidman spoke about the possibility of a handsome man seizing power in Belarus

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Sociologist Ihor Eidman spoke about the possibility of a handsome man seizing power in Belarus

Ihor Eidman is a well-known sociologist and researcher of Putinismwho previously stated that the retreat of the head of the “Wagner” PvC Yevgeny Prigozhin was temporary, shared his thoughts on the future actions of “Putin’s cook” and assessed the probability that he will seize power in Belarus.

“Trojan horse for Lukashenka.

Prigozhin’s actions can be understood only from business logic. According to official data, an amount equivalent to more than a billion euros went to the maintenance of Wagner PMC from the Russian budget every year. Prigozhin will try anything to get similar funding again from any source.

Lukashenko doesn’t have that kind of money, so he won’t be able to hire Prigozhin’s army. African and Asian customers are unlikely to compensate for the loss. Moreover, after the mutiny against the customer, Prigozhin will have an image of an unpredictable and dangerous partner on the world market of PVC services, with whom it is hardly worth doing business.

So Prigozhin can find the lost income only in the same Russian budget. The bloody cook has to either disband the army, which he is clearly not going to do, or make the Kremlin pay for the war again.

However, there is no war in Belarus. So, Prigozhin will have to bring it there.

Options for his actions can be as follows:

1. Trip to Kyiv.

The Kremlin is able to pay well for trying to open a northern front against Ukraine. However, this is a very dangerous project for Prigozhin. Russian troops will not be able to seriously help him now, and Belarusian troops will not. In such a situation, he may be defeated and lose most of his already thinned army. So it is unlikely that he will go for it.

And Lukashenko will probably be against it. After all, repelling such an attack, Ukrainians, together with Belarusian volunteers, can go to Belarus and start a liberation campaign aimed at overthrowing the dictatorship.

2. New military blackmail of the Kremlin, a trip to Moscow with the aim of making the government pay.

It is unlikely that Prigozhin would take such a risk. He must understand that he is unlikely to get out alive from such a mess a second time. Putin will definitely try to finish off his devilish cook then.

3. The seizure of power in Minsk and an attempt to sell Belarus to the Kremlin.

This option seems to me the most likely. The Belarusian army is weak, it will not be able to resist Prigozhin’s selected fighters. It will be much easier to make a trip to Minsk than to Moscow or Kyiv. Prigozhin is in a position, in the style of Bob Dinar, to seize power in Belarus and put some kind of puppet of his there. He can also turn to Putin with a request to accept “liberated Belarus” into Russia.

In this case, the bloody cook will become a megahero in Russia (Putin failed in Ukraine, and he took Belarus) and will be able to impose any conditions on the authorities. And a war will inevitably start in Belarus (Belarusians will take up arms), in which the main pro-Russian force will be Wagner’s PMK itself. This means that Prigozhin’s business (trade in death) will go well again.”— Eidman wrote on Facebook.

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The materials posted in the “Blogs” section reflect the author’s own opinion and may not coincide with the editorial position.


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