Home » Strengthen the population security line of defense to promote balanced population development—News—Science Net

Strengthen the population security line of defense to promote balanced population development—News—Science Net

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Strengthen the defense line of population safety and promote the balanced development of population


Mu Guangzong

Since the country implemented the social plan for childbirth, the national birth rate has “fallen endlessly” and is now hitting a new low.

According to the “China Statistical Yearbook 2021” recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national birth rate in 2020 will be 8.52‰, falling below 10‰ for the first time, while the natural population growth rate during the same period is only 1.45‰.

Data shows that the natural growth rate in 2020 is less than 25% of 10 years ago, especially since the implementation of the second-child policy in 2016, the natural growth rate has dropped from 6.53‰ to 1.45‰, and the rate of decline of the natural growth rate has accelerated after 2017. The birth rate has dropped from 13.57‰ in 2016 to 8.52‰ in 2020. It is not an exaggeration to describe the rate as a “cliff decline”. According to current development trends, the birth rate in 2021 will continue to decline.

What does it mean for the birth rate to fall below 1%? This data means that the negative population growth will come early and close at hand (originally estimated to be after 2027), population shrinking is a general trend, and the risk of low fertility-declining birth rate-aging-demographic imbalance is intensified.

The decline in the birth population in recent years is inseparable from the decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Compared with 2010, the number of women of childbearing age between 15 and 49 years in my country will be reduced by 57.49 million in 2020, with an average annual reduction of 5.75 million. At the same time, the number of women aged 20-29 during the period of vigorous childbirth decreased by 34.63 million in the past 10 years, an average annual decrease of 3.46 million. Low fertility-declining birthrate is not only driven by low willingness to bear children, but also due to the decline of young women of childbearing age.

The birth rate falling below 1% for the first time is a major signal of a demographic transition. It shows that insufficient reserves of young people driven by low fertility and declining birth rates have become the norm and may exacerbate the economic downturn.

The law of population development shows that once the age structure of the population is unbalanced, even the most populous countries will encounter the “labor shortage” dilemma, and even the labor shortage will spread to all walks of life from the manufacturing industry to the service industry, and the economic growth based on human resources will be difficult to sustain. .

Since 2012, my country’s working-age population has decreased by several million every year, and it has decreased by more than 40 million cumulatively. In 2017, China’s population increased by 7.37 million; in 2018, it increased by 5.3 million; in 2019, it increased by 4.67 million; in 2020, it only increased by 2.04 million, and the population shrinkage is severe. It should be admitted that the increase in the population after 2017 is due to the release of the policy effectiveness of the liberalization of the second child.

In the past few decades, because the concept of total population control has long occupied the absolute right to speak, the trend of declining birthrate has not aroused our due vigilance, and has evolved into a serious problem.

Looking back, it can be said that there are three important historical nodes: First, the total fertility rate (TFR) in 1991 fell below the replacement level for the first time, and fell below 1.6 in the following year, which is a type of demographic transition of “getting less before getting rich”; It is the fifth national census (“Fifth Census”) in 2000. The TFR is 1.22, which is lower than 1.5 or even 1.3. It is already a precocious and low-fertility population. The third is the sixth national census in 2010 (“sixth census”). ) Big data shows that the TFR was only 1.18 at that time, which was lower than the “Fifth Census”, which is the best time to adjust the population policy in a timely manner. To put it bluntly, the declining birthrate of the population is not a secondary issue of an aging population, but a major issue with a high degree of independence.

In the 14 years from 1962 to 1975, my country’s newly-born population was 367.76 million, an average of 26 million new-borns each year. From 1962 to 1997, the birth population exceeded 20 million in most years, of which nearly 30 million were born in 1963; but since 1998, my country’s annual birth population has been below 20 million, especially in 2020. The birth population is only 12 million, less than half of 1963. The birth rate in 1963 reached 43.6‰, and the birth rate in 2020 was less than 1/5 of that in 1963.

Severe declining birthrate and rapid aging have caused population polarization. Like a seesaw, the population’s age structure is severely imbalanced and goes against the ideal and goal of long-term balanced population development. Therefore, from a historical period, the data of less than 1% contains the meaning of the risk of the imbalance of the population structure and the meaning of early warning. In fact, the population increase in 2020 is only 2.04 million, which is insignificant compared to the total of 1.4 billion. China is already close to the threshold of zero population growth.

Paying attention to population security is an integral part of the overall national security concept. Population security is an important dimension in the non-traditional security spectrum, and it occupies a fundamental position in the overall national security and plays a decisive role. Population risk and population security are two sides of one. Comte, the father of sociology and French thinker, said: Population is destiny.

Summarizing historical experience, it may be said that population, land, and culture constitute the three elements of human civilization. Without people, there is no population, and without population, there is no talk of the evolution of civilization. Population security is the bottom line, red line, and line of defense for balanced, sustainable, and high-quality development of the population. China must continuously improve the security awareness or safety factor of population development, and firmly establish the security, balance, and optimization concept of population development.

Strengthening the awareness of population security, building a child-friendly society, and achieving long-term balanced population development are important conditions for national rejuvenation and sustainable development of the country. China wants to take the near-replacement level fertility rate (that is, 1.8≦TFR≦2.5) as the basic goal of population revival, which is the need for the sustainable development of the population itself.

Needless to say, what we are observing now is an endogenous and willing ultra-low fertility rate. International experience shows that it is extremely difficult to boost and change the willingness to low fertility. China has missed the opportunity to adjust the fertility rate. In the rapid market-oriented economic reform and social transformation, the young generation’s concept of fertility and lifestyle have undergone fundamental changes. Young people nowadays don’t want one child, let alone two or even three children—that’s just our wishful thinking.

It should be acknowledged that there are certain urban-rural, regional, stratum, and ethnic differences in the fertility rate of the Chinese population. Therefore, we must focus on people with strong willingness to bear children, provide all-round fertility support, and reduce the three births (fertility, nurturing, and education). ) Cost, reduce the phenomenon of false low fertility (that is, cost-constrained low fertility), and identify the population with greater fertility potential. A small number of potential fertility populations may be hidden in the Chinese population at the bottom of the society, such as remote areas or ethnic areas where the cost of childbirth is low, and some are in small cities and small towns.

The population problem has many faces, and the core is the problem of sluggish fertility. In the era of low birth rates, China needs to rebuild a new type of birth culture through birth-friendly extraordinary policies and heavyweight systems. The reproductive friendship of a country, government and society must be embodied in respecting the meaning of life and social value of fertility, and respecting reproductive rights (that is, respecting the autonomy and diversity of fertility). The population-birth policy and system must also demonstrate and defend the concepts of people first, life first, and rights first.

At the same time, efforts should be made to improve the social welfare and service guarantee for childbirth, so that reproductive justice and childbearing welfare become tangible and tangible people’s livelihood benefits, such as issuing childbirth incentives and improving the childcare service system, and protecting women’s rights and interests. We will not encounter employment discrimination in any sense because of childbirth, and so on.

(The author is a professor at the Institute of Population Research, Peking University)

“China Science News” (2021-11-29 1st Edition Highlights)

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