The elections of 10 October in Iraq went smoothly and peacefully. According to the high electoral commission, the results are as follows: the movement of Shiite leader Moqtada al Sadr won the elections by winning 73 seats, followed by the Taqaddum (progress) party, led by former parliament president Mohammed Halbousi, with 41 seats. The rule of law coalition led by former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki won 37 seats, while the Kurdish Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani won 32.
The women candidates amazed the men by winning 97 seats out of the 329 total seats in the Iraqi parliament. It was a shock to the major Islamic parties.
Independent candidates broke the monopoly of traditional parties by winning 20 seats. Two movements born out of the protests in 2019 won 18 seats.
The main actor
The main winner, as was to be expected, was the popular religious Moqtada al Sadr, who on July 15 decided to boycott the elections by declaring that the holding of a free and fair vote would be impossible in the context of the current political crisis. But as usual he then changed his mind and decided to take part in the consultation. It wasn’t a big surprise. Even if his supporters expected him to win the hundred seats needed to form the next government, his movement still remains the main player in the field. With some alliance – for example with the Kurds, who welcomed his victory, with the Sunni blocs and with the independents – he will be able to put together a coalition large enough to form a government.
But it won’t be that easy. The big loser of this election was Iran. Teams linked to Tehran were baffled by the sharp decline in their popularity. The pro-Iranian militia Fateh lost 31 of the 46 seats won in the last elections of 2018. Other militias have reduced their presence in parliament to just four seats. Their reaction so far has been a resounding protest. After an emergency summit, the leader of Fateh, Hadi al Amiri, accused the electoral commission of having “surrendered to foreign pressure”. The danger posed by the losers lies not in their consensus but in their weapons. Three of these groups have threatened a “civil war between Shiites” if the results are confirmed. Under this threat, the electoral commission initiated a manual recount of the votes in 112 seats, which resulted in only a few minor changes in the numbers. The losers are still waiting, with their finger on the trigger.
True, these have been quiet and peaceful elections, but who knows what will still happen in the unpredictable Iraq.
(Translation by Francesco De Lellis)
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