25.7% of the votes in the elections for the Bundestag, the German federal parliament: what a disaster! The faces of the militants gathered in the headquarters of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) were dark, also the face of Olaf Scholz, candidate for chancellor and outgoing finance minister in the government coalition between the SPD and the Christian Democratic Union / Christianosocial Union (CDU / Csu), led by Angela Merkel.
But no, you will say, on the evening of September 26, 2021, many other images broadcast from Berlin were seen on TV: cheering Social Democrats, happy with their 25.7 percent that crowned them winners of the electoral contest. There was a disaster, but in 2013, when the SPD reached the same percentage as today, identical to the comma, and experienced it as a burning defeat. Now, however, Olaf Scholz is acclaimed by his followers as the party’s savior.
The scenarios of German politics have changed radically compared to eight years ago. Today the SPD can rejoice for the simple fact of having survived, indeed resurrected. He was given up for dead: still in the spring the polls put him at a paltry 16 percent and in the previous months he had hit bottom with a catastrophic 11 percent. Consequently, the electoral campaign seemed to open the door to a duel between Christian Democrats and Greens, both then close to 30 percent.
Winning combination
In the end it didn’t happen that way. Now many commentators attribute the turning point, which took place since August, almost exclusively to the candidate for the chancellery. It’s true: Scholz was perceived by the electorate as more competent, more reliable, more reassuring than Armin Laschet of the CDU / CSU and Annalena Baerbock of the Greens. Many explain his success in the sign of continuity: he would have been the candidate perceived as the true heir of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
It’s a half-true statement. In fact, it leaves out two facts. The first is the repositioning of the SPD, which has rediscovered the social question. A minimum wage of 12 euros per hour, guarantees for the stability of pensions, investments in social housing, higher taxes on high incomes and assets: these were the central programmatic points of the SPD, certainly not in continuity with the government Merkel. And here we are at the second factor: the whole party, historically inclined to internal struggles between right and left, this time carried out the campaign with conviction without engaging in the slightest internal conflict. An authoritative leader even if not the least bit charismatic, a univocal program, a united party: this combination allowed the SPD, considered dying only a few weeks ago, to become the first German party.
Licking their wounds
All of these ingredients, on the other hand, were lacking in Armin Laschet. The top man of the CDU / CSU has become the candidate of his party after a very tough internal dispute with his rival, the Bavarian leader of the CSU Markus Söder. As if that were not enough Laschet has not been able to gain authority during the electoral campaign, paved with gaffes. He also wanted to focus only on continuity with Merkel and his only memorable promise was to lower taxes for the rich. The result is a real defeat for Christian Democrats, who have reached the worst result in their history: a paltry 24 percent, with a net loss of almost nine percentage points compared to 2017.
Even the Greens are licking their wounds. They reached almost 15 percent. In itself it would be a historic success, but they were racing to become the second or even the first German party, to then form into government under a green chancellor. And the conditions were apparently all there: climate change has become the dominant topic in Germany, also due to the devastating floods that caused 180 deaths this summer. But the Greens stumbled upon the choice of their young and brilliant candidate, whose image was damaged when it was discovered that her resume was slightly rigged and her book, released during the campaign, was full of plagiarism.
However, they can console themselves with an old adage by Bettino Craxi according to which votes are not counted but weighed. In fact, no government is possible without the Greens: even the winner Scholz can aspire to lead the government only if he has their consent.
However, it would not be enough: it will also take the consent of the liberals, the fourth party, which has grown slightly, to 11.5 per cent, but has still grown. In fact, even the liberals, like the SPD, still seemed to be in severe crisis a few months ago, even their return to the Bundestag was in doubt, given that in the polls they were given at 5 per cent. Now they are back with a more than respectable result. What’s more: they returned to the role of scales, alongside the Greens.
The right-wing populists of Alternative für Deutschland (Afd) did not touch the ball throughout the election campaign. They presented themselves as a party split between the more moderate and the radical wings, also open to pro-Nazi impulses. If they have reached 10 percent, they can console themselves with the fact that despite the poor performance they have firmly established themselves in the country, even winning the position of first party in Saxony and Thuringia.
Instead Die Linke suffered a real defeat, falling from 9 to 4.9 percent. If he joins the Bundestag again, despite the 5% barrier, he will owe it to a particularity of the electoral law. Having conquered three colleges, he immediately has the right to be represented in parliament. The leftist party was not only damaged by the fact that many of its historic protest votes in the eastern regions poured into the AFD, but also by presenting itself as a torn force among those who really intended to build a government alliance with the SPD and the Greens and those who instead aimed at an opposition from the radical left. After the vote, Die Linke is still not dead, but he is in the intensive care unit. Beyond the moods in the party it is however irrelevant for the formation of the next government.
The future government, on the other hand, will be played exclusively between the SPD, the Christian Democrats, the Greens and the liberals who will come to the negotiating table with very different programs on social measures, on the climate, on taxes. So today we only know one thing: these negotiations are going to last quite a while. Perhaps Angela Merkel will still be giving the Christmas speech as Chancellor in office for current affairs.
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