Original title: Anti-terrorism experts technically interpreted the explosion of a Chinese bus in Pakistan. Has the possibility of a terrorist attack been ruled out?
ćć[ēÆēę¶ę„-ēÆēē½ę„éč®°č ē½äŗę” čµµč§ēµ å“åæä¼]According to news from the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan on the 14th, at around 7 am local time on the 14th, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Cape Province) project of the Dasu Hydropower Station, which was constructed by a Chinese company, was on the way to the construction site. Encountered an explosion. So far, 9 Chinese personnel and 3 Pakistani personnel have been killed. Pakistan is investigating the cause.
This incident has aroused great attention at home and abroad: What is the cause of the incident? Is it an explosion caused by a mechanical failure, or an organized and planned terrorist attack? If it were a terrorist attack, who might be behind the scenes? Where is the Cape Province where the incident occurred, and what complex forces are entrenched?
ććIs it a mechanical failure or a terrorist attack?
The news of the explosion spread all over the world at noon Beijing time and aroused great attention. At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that afternoon, Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that China expressed shock and condemnation of the bomb attack in the Cape Province of Pakistan that caused Chinese casualties, and expressed condolences to the Chinese and Pakistani personnel who died in the attack. Express condolences to his family members and injured persons. The Pakistani security forces have taken measures to control the situation, properly transfer and treat the wounded. China has asked Pakistan to investigate the truth as soon as possible, capture the perpetrators, punish them severely, and effectively protect the safety of Chinese personnel, institutions and projects in Pakistan.
About 3 hours later, Pakistan gave the cause of the explosion. Pakistanās Ministry of Foreign Affairs website issued a statement saying that in the morning in Pakistanās Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a shuttle bus carrying Chinese citizens caused a gas leak due to a mechanical failure, causing an explosion and causing the shuttle bus to fall into a canyon. Further investigation is ongoing.
So, what is the more likely cause of the accident? Has the possibility of a terrorist attack been ruled out? In an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 14th, Li Wei, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations and an expert on counter-terrorism, believed that based on the information currently disclosed, his personal analysis believes that the possibility of an explosion caused by a mechanical failure is greater than an explosion attack.
The Chinese counter-terrorism expert analyzed that technically speaking, if it is an explosive terrorist attack, there are generally only three methods, one is a roadside bomb, the other is a suicide attack by a motorcycle, and the third is an explosion caused by someone carrying explosives in the vehicle. .
He introduced that all Chinese projects in Pakistan are strictly protected by the Pakistani military and police, and that Chinese employees should have Pakistani military and police vehicles before and after the bus, especially in places with poor security conditions such as Cape Province. . If it is a roadside bomb, the Pakistani military escort vehicle should be the first to be attacked, not the bus of the Chinese personnel.
As for the possibility of the second type of motorcycle attack, he said that if this is the case, it should be easy to judge, and the same exploded or destroyed motorcycle will be found at the scene. Judging from the information currently disclosed, no other traffic vehicles were found at the scene.
Regarding the third possibility, Li Wei said that, generally speaking, the vehicles of the Chinese enterprise projects in Pakistan will go through very strict security checks, and most of the buses involved are Chinese employees, with only a small number of local employees. The possibility that people in the vehicle carry explosives is extremely low.
Li Wei said that judging from the style of the bus that fell into the river, the vehicle is relatively old and different from the bus that everyone generally rides in China, it may have mechanical failures and lose control.
However, the possibility of a terrorist attack could not be ruled out. Several South Asian experts told the Global Times reporter that the accident occurred in the Kohistan region in northern Cape Province of Pakistan, bordering the Kashmir region. Due to the high road danger and frequent activities of local terrorist organizations, it is difficult to completely eliminate it.
Qian Feng, director of the research department of the National Institute of Strategic Studies of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times reporter on the 14th that the Cape Province where the accident occurred was one of the most insecure provinces in Pakistan. It borders Afghanistan and is the Pakistani Taliban (abbreviated as āBataā). “) Active base camp.
He said that “Bata” is known for indiscriminately attacking the Pakistani government, military, and civilians. Especially in recent years, it has repeatedly targeted Chinese projects in Pakistan and engineers and technicians as one of its priority targets. It has even kidnapped and killed Chinese tourists and people. businessman. “‘Bata’ has produced many vicious incidents in the past with the goal of combating Sino-Pakistani relations, because they know that Pakistan attaches great importance to Sino-Pakistani relations, and has taken a rat-in-the-money approach to the kidnapping of Chinese hostages and other issues.”
It is understood that the Dasu Hydropower Station project involved in the accident was constructed by China Gezhouba Group. The total installed capacity of the project is 4,300 MW, which is one of the projects with the most technical difficulty, total installed capacity and the largest total investment in Pakistan. The main part of the project consists of the dam machinery subsidiary project and the underground powerhouse and tunnel project. According to Gezhouba Group, during the construction of the project, the Pakistani military provided safety protection support to ensure the safety of the project.
ććIf it were a terrorist attack, who would be behind the scenes?
Wang Shida, deputy director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 14th that the overall security situation in Pakistan has been improving in recent years, and the number of violent terrorist casualties has been declining, but in the past two years, However, attacks on Chinese targets are on the increase. He explained that this was mainly due to the smooth progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. There are some Pakistani domestic and foreign forces who are unwilling to see this situation, hoping to create vicious incidents and delay the progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Wang Shida said that there are two main terrorist forces that least want to see the rapid progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. One is the country’s largest terrorist force, “Bata”. This force opposes the Pakistani government due to religious ideology and therefore also opposes it. The Pakistani government is vigorously promoting cooperation projects with China; the second is the Baluchist separatist forces, they do not want to see economic construction make Pakistan more integrated, which will lead to the bankruptcy of their separatist goals.
Qian Feng believes that if the investigation results show that the incident is indeed a terrorist attack, “Bata” will be the most likely force to carry out the attack. He said that previously, the activities of “Bata” had been silent under the attack of the Pakistani government and military, but recently there has been an upward trend. This is due to the fact that the local extremist and terrorist forces have not been eradicated, and the other is the United States. After the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, the spillover effect was obvious. Violent activities on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border rose rapidly, and extremist forces changed from dormant to active under the agitation.
It is understood that Pakistanās central government has a weak control over Cape Province. The province is full of āBataā forces and runs its own legal system. Therefore, the public security situation has been poor. The Dasu Hydropower Station project is located in the mountains and is protected by a special security department. The relative situation is controllable. However, access to the project camp requires a mountainous area, so safety cannot be fully guaranteed.
ććExpert: Be alert to the risk of spillovers in the situation in AfghanistanBut the overall situation of China-Pakistan economic cooperation will not change
In recent years, there have been many attacks on Chinese projects or personnel in Pakistan. On April 21 this year, a car bomb exploded in the parking lot of a luxury hotel in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, Pakistan, killing 5 people and injuring 12 people. The incident did not cause any casualties to Chinese citizens. “Bata” subsequently declared responsibility for the attack.
According to reports, the Chinese delegation led by the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Nong Rong was staying in this hotel, but they were not in the hotel at the time of the incident and were out for an event.
In February 2018, two Chinese citizens were shot in Karachi. At that time, two Chinese citizens who were attacked were sitting in a car, and the gunman in the other car fired at them several times. One of the Chinese citizens was shot in the head and was unfortunately killed due to serious injuries. According to local media reports, the Chinese nationals killed were employees of COSCO Shipping.
On August 11 of the same year, a convoy carrying Chinese citizens was attacked by a suicide bomber in the Dar Bunding area of āāBalochistan. Three Chinese and three local security personnel were injured. The “Balochian People’s Liberation Army” subsequently posted information on the Internet that it had caused the attack.
On November 23 of the same year, the Chinese Consulate in Karachi suffered a terrorist attack. Three terrorists were killed, two Pakistani policemen were killed, and the consulate general personnel were all safe.
Wang Shida emphasized that despite violent terrorist attacks from time to time, the security situation in Pakistan is still improving. At present, what should be most vigilant is the impact of the deterioration of the situation in Afghanistanās neighboring country: There are a large number of anti-Palestinian organizations in Afghanistan. If the situation further deteriorates in the future, more international and regional terrorist organizations may enter Pakistanās territory, and there will also be hostile forces. Targeting China and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
However, this Chinese expert said that this will not change the prospects and overall situation of China-Pakistan economic cooperation. Pakistanās military and police have now attached great importance to the safety of Chinese personnel. The security of Chinese personnel will definitely be more targeted in the future, because China-Pakistan The destruction of economic corridors is the last prospect they want to see.
The Pakistani Embassy in China sent a statement to the Global Times reporter on the 14th, expressing condolences to the Chinese citizens who were killed in this incident. At the same time, it also emphasized that Pakistan and China are close friends and iron buddies. Pakistan is very grateful to China. Exemplary work done by workers in Pakistan. Pakistan attaches great importance to the safety and security of Chinese citizens, projects and institutions in Pakistan.
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