The stakes were as simple as they were crucial: finding a way in which the two main powers of the twenty-first century can compete without risking war. The deterioration of relations between the dominant power, the United States, and the emerging one, China, was such as to make an attempt to define the rules of the game indispensable. Or rather, as Joe Biden declared at the opening of the summit via videoconference, it was necessary to devise “reasonable fire prevention measures”. The will, in other words, is to move from a head-on collision to a “responsible competition”, to use the expression of a member of Biden’s team.
After Biden’s arrival in the White House in January, top-level contacts between the two countries have been sporadic. The three-hour meeting that took place on the evening of November 15 is therefore fundamental in a context in which economic, political and strategic disputes were piling up.
The moment is not accidental: Biden feels he has begun to restore the balance of power by focusing all American power in the direction of China, while Xi reaches the top stronger than ever on the home front after the meeting of the Chinese Communist Party last week.
Of course, a summit is not enough to calm the waters, and no one had the pretension. But the two sides still made an effort to show their good will. Xi opened the meeting by calling Biden “Lao Peng You”, “old friend” in Mandarin, an extremely codified expression of the Communist Party. It may seem trivial, but it is a way to leave the conflict of recent months behind.
Past and future
Biden recalled the hours he spent arguing with Xi when he was vice president of Barack Obama and the current Chinese number one was his country’s rising star. Also in this case it was a way to overcome the prevailing hostility.
This staging of the public part of the summit was aimed at dismantling the logic of the confrontation in which the two countries seemed hopelessly sunk. In this way it is possible to address the underlying issues.
But at the base there are “red lines” that each of the two leaders has tried to point out to the interlocutor, and here one soon ends up returning to the conflict. Starting with the question of Taiwan, of which Beijing considers the “return” to its absolutely non-negotiable group, while Washington is committed to defending the democratic island in the event of an attack. At this stage no compromise is possible, but everyone will know how far to go.
The same dynamic occurs with regard to human rights, in Xinjiang and elsewhere, with Beijing’s intransigence with respect to any interference in its internal affairs where Washington makes it a matter of universal principles.
The mission, therefore, is to define a “peaceful coexistence” of the twenty-first century, to take up a formula that dates back to the Cold War with the Soviet Union. The dialogue will go on, and this is already a recognition that neither of the two powers will be able to outshine the other. Sino-American relations resemble the formula of the French philosopher Raymond Aron, also referring to the First Cold War: “An unlikely war, an impossible peace”. We will have to live with it …
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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