On February 6, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference to officially release the 2022 China Climate Bulletin. The report was completed by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration. It comprehensively analyzed China‘s basic climate profile, climate system monitoring status, and major meteorological disasters and extreme weather and climate events in 2022, and comprehensively assessed the impact of climate on industries, the environment, and human health. . In addition, relevant experts have also made research and judgment on this year’s climate trend and future climate change issues and made detailed interpretations.
Data map: On September 29, 2022, the Jiangxi Changjiang section continued to maintain low water levels.Photo by Liu Zhankun
Preliminary research and judgment of the National Climate Center:The overall deviation of the national climate annual scene this year
At the press conference, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said that the current global warming is accelerating, and the impact of climate change on my country is very far-reaching. The climate system is affected by climate change and becomes more unstable. In recent years, my country’s extreme weather and climate events have also shown the characteristics of high frequency of occurrence, wide range of influence, and strong catastrophe.
According to Jia Xiaolong, regarding the country’s overall climate situation this year, the National Climate Center’s preliminary research and judgment believes that the overall climate situation in the country this year is generally biased, and extreme weather and climate events are still showing a trend of frequent and strong occurrence.
In response to this year’s climate situation, the National Climate Center suggested that the southern region of my country should focus on preventing persistent high-temperature weather in summer to ensure energy supply during the peak summer; coastal areas should also focus on strengthening typhoon defenses; northern regions should focus on preventing heavy rain, floods and other Secondary disasters such as urban waterlogging caused by urban flooding; the western region should improve the prevention of geological disasters caused by heavy rainfall and other risks.
Song Shanyun, spokesperson and director of the office of the China Meteorological Administration, said that the National Climate Center rolls out seasonal and annual forecasts every month, especially seasonal changes, and also releases them to the public. As for the forecast of the whole year this year, it is customary to organize relevant agencies to hold consultations in March every year to make detailed forecasts and forecasts for the entire flood season.
Data map: Citizens learn about wetland protection law through offline display boards.Photo by Liang Qinqing
“Low probability high impact” events will be more likely to occur
Jia Xiaolong mentioned at the press conference that according to climate change forecasts, climate change will continue to exist in my country in the future.
For example, he said that in the future, the average temperature in different regions of my country will still show an increasing trend; extreme weather and climate events will become more frequent and more severe, and extreme high temperature events will be more frequent and more severe in the future, and the higher the emission scenario, the faster the growth rate , the stronger the intensity, the greater the risk.
In the central and eastern regions of my country, around 2035, the extreme high temperature event in summer similar to 2013 may become biennial. By the end of this century, the risk of high temperature events will increase to dozens of times the current one. In the future, the increase in extreme precipitation in my country will also be greater than the average precipitation, and the variability will increase, and the precipitation will become more extreme.
In the future, the period of China‘s average concentrated rainfall will also change from the current 50-year occurrence to 20-year occurrence. Extreme drought events will go from once in 50 years now to once in 32 years. “This shows that our country will still be severely affected by climate change in the future.” He said.
In addition, the probability and risk of compound extreme events will continue to increase. Jia Xiaolong said that, in general, due to the impact of climate change, “low-probability high-impact” events will be more likely to occur, thus increasing the challenge of preventing extreme climate risks.
Data map: Aerial photography of the waters of Jinxi Lake in the core lake area of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi. The “earth tree” appeared due to the drop in water level.Photo by Liu Zhankun
Advocate individuals to switch to green consumption patterns
“Individuals are not only contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, but also victims of the increase in extreme weather and climate events under climate change.” Jia Xiaolong said that it is necessary to encourage individuals to turn to green consumption patterns in terms of basic necessities of life, food, housing and transportation, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible. emission.
He believes that from the government level, the Chinese government has been strengthening disaster prevention and reduction, emergency management and other aspects of capacity building to deal with climate change. From the perspective of the public, it is also necessary to improve their own awareness of disaster prevention and mitigation and response to climate change.
Jia Xiaolong pointed out that special attention should be paid to improving the comprehensiveness of attention to meteorological disasters. For example, residents in northern regions also need to understand some common sense of rainstorm disasters compared with before.
He suggested that everyone should understand the meaning of the weather disaster warning information issued by the government, including what kind of response measures should be taken for different warning information, and the distribution information of nearby disaster shelters. At the same time, strengthen the awareness of disaster and risk prevention in daily work and life, such as actively avoiding heat in high temperature weather, and reducing going out in typhoon weather.
(Original title: “China Climate Bulletin” released in 2022, experts explain future trends in detail)
(Source: China News Network Author: Wei Xianghui Responsible Editor: Liu Shuqiao)