The anti-Chinese alliance in the Pacific also challenges the European Union – Pierre Haski

The shock wave does not stop spreading around the world, and in Paris it is particularly violent. Everything stems from a double announcement that will have considerable consequences: on the one hand that of an anti-Chinese alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia; on the other hand, the replacement without notice of the large order of French submarines destined for Australia and which will be replaced by US aircraft.

The impact is felt first of all in France, as the official reactions show, with unprecedented anger. Secondly in Europe, where the 27th strategy for the Indo-Pacific area was announced on 16 September for a joke of the calendar. Thirdly in the transatlantic relations directly involved and finally in China, where the government reacted violently by denouncing a “cold war” mentality.

All the protagonists of this geopolitical earthquake know that the “contract of the century” is not at stake, which the French are obviously furious at having lost. The crucial point is the strategic landslide that ensues and that carries a real risk of conflict.

The perceptible changes are of two kinds, and both concern the French in particular and the Europeans in general. The former has the merit of clarity, and shows us that the Biden administration, although more agreeable than the previous one, treats its European allies with the same ease. By declaring that Biden is behaving “a la Trump”, the head of French diplomacy Jean-Yves Le Brian has taken a clear and far from diplomatic position.

As happened with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, once again the Americans did not consult anyone. Speaking of the submarine contract, in Paris there is even talk of “deception”, underlining that Australia communicated its decision a few hours before the public announcement.

It is now clear that the belief that Biden could embody a throwback to America from the past was just an illusion. The United States has confirmed its treaty commitments, but at this point we must realize that Washington values ​​its strategic interests more restrictively.

The other change concerns the confrontation with China, the great theme of the century that has experienced a new chapter with the organization of an American “bloc” in Asia. By switching from French to US submarines, Australia has chosen to align with Washington, also due to direct threats from Beijing.

Europe, on the other hand, does not want to align itself. On 16 September, presenting the Indo-Pacific strategy, the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell declared that the goal is “cooperation, not conflict” with Beijing, while taking care to defend democratic values. However, this is not enough in the eyes of the Americans, who have actually entered into a cold war logic.

In this polarized world, is there still room for a European “third way” that is neither mercantile nor a sign of weakness in the face of an aggressive power? Are Europeans ready to defend strategic autonomy? These are the questions that the submarine affair has the merit of highlighting, regardless of French anger.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)