The Californian dream interrupted by the demographic decline

The novelist Wallace Stegner had described California with these words: “It is America … but more”. And yet, judging by the population estimates released on May 2, this is still “America”, but “less”. In fact, California’s population dropped to 39.2 million in January of this year, 400,000 fewer than in 2020, while in 1990 the number of Californians increased by a solid 2.5 percent annually. .

The main contributor to the decline comes from immigration. In 2021, the net change (the difference between the number of people who left the state and that of people who settled within its borders) was double the number of deaths from covid-19 and four times the rate natural turnover of the population (the difference between the number of deaths and the number of births). This phenomenon has particularly affected large cities. The Los Angeles County population has continued to shrink dramatically over the past four years.

Although this contraction was not above average (other states also show similar demographic trends) it may appear more severe in a state where, as the governor once stated, “the future comes sooner”.

Scaled factors
In reality, California’s demographic trends are actually more negative than average. The state’s overall fertility rate (TFT, the estimate of the number of children a woman gives birth in her lifetime) went from 2.2 children in 2006 to 1.5 in 2020, more than in the whole of the United States. where the reduction was from 2.1 to 1.6 children. The FTT is one of the most important indicators of future trends. According to Californian demographer Walter Schwarm, fertility has declined in part due to the greater share of foreign immigrants arriving from South Korea, Japan and China. East Asians brought with them their low fertility rate.

Consequently, as writer and columnist Joe Matthews points out, California’s demographics today contrast with the inhabitants’ feeling of living in a “place where you can play in the sun” (to quote the Beach Boys). Factors such as youth, attractiveness for immigrants and diversity appear to be reduced compared to the past.

California is still young, but not that young anymore. The average age (37.3 years) is a year and a half below the national average, but is catching up and has increased by two years in the decade between 2010 and 2020. In 2010, people over 65 represented 11 per cent of the population, while according to forecasts they will almost double in 2030 (19 per cent). In this sense, Dianne Feinstein, an 88-year-old senator from California, adequately represents her constituency.

California is no longer the magnet it once was for emigrants. Between 2000 and 2020, the state lost three million people who moved to other areas of the United States. In recent years, the decline has been increased by the pandemic and border controls, two phenomena that have affected foreign immigrants. In 2000, the population of Texas exceeded that of California by 60 percent. Today that figure has reached 75 percent, also thanks to the influx of Californians.

Overpriced houses
Drought, fires and the relatively poor school system have played a major role in this exodus, but the deciding factor is the cost of housing. In 2019, a house in California cost 184 percent more on average than in Texas. Lowell Myers, a demographer at the University of Southern California, argues that the exorbitant cost of housing is one of the causes of lower fertility rates – because couples who want to have children move to states where they can afford a family home. but also of the relative young age of the inhabitants, because many elderly Californians decide to use the money saved up to buy large houses elsewhere to settle after retirement.

As a result, California has lost one component of its diversity: the perception of being a state that attracts people from all over America in search of success. From an ethnic point of view, the situation has not changed much. 27 percent of Californians were born overseas, the highest percentage in the United States and double the national average. Along with New Mexico, California is the only state where more Hispanics (39 percent) than whites (37 percent) live. In absolute terms, California is home to more Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders than any other state, including Hawaii. In the future, the state will become less and less white. Even though today whites represent two-fifths of adult Californians, in fact, among children they are only 25 percent.

Nonetheless, in other ways California is no longer a melting pot. It was once considered a place where everyone came from somewhere else, and Myers points out that before 2000 only 40 percent of people between 25 and 35 were born here. Today, however, it is 60 percent. The Wilson brothers, members of the Beach Boys, were born in California, but their parents were from Kansas and Minnesota. Eddie Van Alan grew up in Pasadena and became one of the greatest guitarists in the world, but his parents were born in the Netherlands and Indonesia.

One sign of the state’s lesser diversity is the reduction in the number of people who speak mostly or only Spanish. In 2010, four-fifths of Hispanics spoke the native language fluently. In 2020 it was just two thirds. Another significant sign is the fact that half of foreign-born immigrants have obtained citizenship, the highest percentage in the last forty years. “We’re not that diverse anymore,” Matthews regrets.

William Frey, a member of the Brookings institution analysis and research group, points out that many of the demographic problems are concentrated in four major cities, while the rest of the state rivals Texas and Arizona in attractiveness and will benefit from the fact that house prices across the western United States are approaching those in California.

Immigration has remained constant for a decade (while the number of people who have left has changed) and California continues to attract the same percentage of foreign immigrants (about a quarter of the total), although the overall number has shrunk. In the 10’s of 2000, according to research by the Public Policy Institute of California, the number of students who came to study in California universities was higher than that of Californians who went to study outside, while people with only degrees left en masse the state. Newcomers also tended to be more affluent.

Perhaps California is still where the future comes first, but it is a future where the population will be older and fewer, and where ethnic diversity and education will decline. It is not a drama, but it is certainly not the sunshine of California dreamin’.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)