According to Chinese state media, Xi Jinping signed an order to release the “Outline of Military Actions for Non-War Military Actions (Trial)”. Scholars have analyzed that the outline includes mountains and seas in order to benefit the CCP’s future “familiar teachers”. According to the analysis of military experts, it mentions “maintaining national sovereignty” and “innovating the use of military power”, which will pave the way for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to follow Russia’s example and launch so-called “special military operations” in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to prepare for “legal warfare”.
Xinhua News Agency reported on the 13th that Xi Jinping, Chinese President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, signed an order a few days ago to issue the “Outline of Military Non-War Military Actions (Trial)”, which will be implemented on the 15th. The “Outline” has 6 chapters and 59 articles, summarizing practical experience and theoretical achievements, and providing legal basis for the troops to carry out non-war military operations.
Xinhua pointed out that the “Outline” adheres to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, thoroughly implements Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military, adheres to the overall national security concept, and focuses on effectively preventing and defusing risks and challenges, responding to emergencies, and protecting the people. Safety of life and property, safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests, safeguarding world peace and regional stability, innovating the use of military forces, and regulating the organization and implementation of military non-war military operations are of great significance to effectively fulfilling the military’s missions and tasks in the new era.
[Xi Jinping signs and releases the “Outline of Military Action for Non-War”]
[Scholar: Paving the way for rationalization of sending troops to Taiwan and the South China Sea]It mentioned “protecting national sovereignty” and “innovating the use of military power”, which paved the way for the CCP’s Liberation Army to follow Russia’s example and launch so-called “special military operations” in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to prepare for “legal warfare”.#military non-war military action outline#taihai#South China Sea# internal stability pic.twitter.com/sLF7qlWKFs
— Radio Free Asia (@RFA_Chinese) June 14, 2022
Taiwan military commentator Qi Leyi was interviewed by Radio Free Asia and analyzed that the CCP started to study “non-war military operations” many years ago. Russia defines the Ukraine operation as a “special military operation” rather than an invasion, saying it was aimed at fighting the Nazis. The CCP’s implementation of this outline to rationalize the definition of future military operations in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea can be regarded as a foreshadowing of legal battles.
Qi Leyi pointed out: “In the future when China invades Taiwan by force, he will not say it is a war, because war is a matter between the two countries, and he will definitely use this so-called “special military operation” or “non-war military operation”. ’, in order to solve the problem of domestic separatist forces, he must have defined the war in this way.”
Legal battle begins covering “protection of national sovereignty”
Qi Leyi mentioned that in the past, the military community discussed “non-war military operations”, referring to non-traditional security areas such as humanitarian relief, such as wind disasters, tsunamis, earthquakes, and emergency relief. Xi Jinping signed the “Outline of Military Non-War Military Operations (Trial)”. Beyond this range, it covers emergencies, national sovereignty, security, and development interests, which are also different from the actions of peacekeeping forces.
Qi Leyi said that in the future, the CCP’s military operations will not be carried out locally, and overseas, he will never call it an invasion operation to start a war and disrupt regional peace, but to carry out special military operations to safeguard national sovereignty and security.
Qi Leyi analyzed that the “Outline” mentioned “innovating the use of military power”, and he thought this sentence was very important. “This has a foreshadowing. In the future, military use does not necessarily have to start a war, in the traditional sense of the “war”, so how to innovate? They need to further deepen this, so that in the future military operations against Taiwan and the South China Sea, he will be able to Use it to set a position for his possible military operations in the future. The outline is out to provide a legal basis for these things in the future.”
Qi Leyi gave an example. Many military operations may not cause a war, but they can solve the problem. For example, during the Kosovo War, the US bombed the Chinese embassy in the Yugoslavia, which did not trigger a Sino-US war. In addition, the U.S. used a drone to kill Iranian military general Qasem Soleimani, but it did not trigger a U.S.-Iran war.
Recently, Chinese officials said that Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and U.S. Defense Secretary Austin proposed in the dialogue between the U.S. and Chinese defense ministers that “if someone splits Taiwan, they will not hesitate to fight”, which is very close to the release time of this outline.
In this regard, Gong Xiangsheng, an assistant researcher at the Institute of Political Affairs and Military Affairs of the National Security Research Institute of Taiwan, accepted an interview with Radio Free Asia and thought it was two different things: “Wei Fenghe is talking about fighting for Taiwan at all costs. That is a state of war. Now this outline talks about a state of non-war. Therefore, the two are actually separate, the outline is a statement of the main purpose, mainly for internal stability maintenance, or it also talks about external, as long as it is the safety of people’s property and life, he can use this outline to act.”
Baoshan Baohai is famous for his future division
Signing this law at this time, Gong Xiangsheng also believed that it was in response to the turmoil at home and abroad: “After the Russian-Ukrainian war, the international situation was turbulent, intervention, anti-intervention, gray area conflicts, etc., before the state of war, it was in peacetime, so in the Non-war military operations in peacetime are the mode of action of the main armies now, and in peacetime now, the chances of applying the military to non-war military operations are higher than using the law of war.”
Gong Xiangsheng pointed out that the full text of 6 chapters and 59 articles has not been seen so far. It is only conceptual, and the scope of the order is very wide. “Let’s talk about preventing risks and challenges, responding to emergencies, protecting people’s property and national sovereignty, and even maintaining world peace and regional stability. So this scope is almost all-inclusive, and all the internal and external scopes that can be done can be done. He said that everything he cares about is written in. The trouble now is that I haven’t read the full text, so I can’t know the details. Only by looking at the actual content can I know the type of action, organization and command, purpose, and pertinence?”
Gong Xiangsheng mentioned that in 2010, the CCP wanted to introduce the Law on Foreign-related Non-War Military Operations, but it has not been pushed forward. Since 2015, it has gradually become the rule of law, administering according to the law, leading the army according to the law, and governing the country according to the law. Now this outline has emerged. “In the future, according to this outline, whether it is anti-terrorism, maintaining the safety of sea lanes, expanding the military scope, and participating in peacekeeping, there will be an action plan as a legal basis. I think it is a part of strengthening the system and becoming famous with the future division.”
Wang Dan: bluffing is the CCP’s consistent practice
The CCP’s release of the “Outline of Military Non-War Military Actions” aroused heated discussions. Wang Dan, the former leader of the Tiananmen student movement on June 4, analyzed on Facebook, which not only deterred domestic opposition, but also pointed at Taiwan. However, it does not mean that Xi Jinping has decided to attack Taiwan. The bluff is a consistent practice of the CCP, and it is also to increase the bargaining chips in the contest between the United States and China.
Liu Zhongjing, an independent Chinese scholar in the United States, pointed out that Xi Jinping lacks a direct line of cadres and must overthrow the anti-Party clique in the next two to three years. He only needs to mobilize the necessary resources under his daily work status and without special procedures to execute Helu. The Xiaofu-style coup d’etat, the Mao Zedong-style military control committee and the masses combined to overthrow the capitalist roaders, the Deng Xiaoping-style suppression of mass incidents, the Jiang Zemin-style disaster relief, the Xi Jinping-style plague control mobilization, and the Putin-style Taiwan War.
Radio Free Asia reporter Xia Xiaohua, editor-in-chief of Taipei reporting, Xu Shuting, and Qingqing.com editor, Ruizhe