According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China on August 15, in July, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16-24 in China was 19.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. This is the highest youth unemployment rate on record since the Bureau of Statistics released the indicator in 2018. Scholars believe that there is a political purpose behind the official release of such a figure by the CCP at this time.
The Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China only officially released the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16 to 24 in January 2018. Under the CCP’s careful repair, this figure has maintained a historical average of 12.5%, but this year it has soared to nearly 20%.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Education of the Communist Party of China, the number of college graduates this year is expected to reach 10.76 million, breaking the 10 million mark for the first time. In the context of the continuous economic downturn, the shrinking manufacturing industry, the suppressed education and training industry, and Internet companies are unable to absorb a large number of young laborers, and the severe employment situation may continue for a period of time.
An economist in Beijing under the pseudonym Li Hong said in an interview with VOA that China’s youth unemployment rate is close to 20 percent, a significant figure that surpasses Europe’s for the first time.
At the same time, Li Hong believes that the real unemployment rate is actually more than 20%, because “20% is usually a psychological barrier, and I usually don’t want to report this number”, so the official created a marginal figure of 19.9%, which feels like listening It’s less than 20%, which is reasonable.
Li Hong analyzed that the students entering the job market this year include 11 million college graduates, several million vocational school graduates, and nearly 1 million high school graduates, plus middle school graduates, which adds up to Conservatively, it is almost 20 million, but only 11 million new jobs were created in the city last year. In fact, the unemployment rate of young people should be much higher than the official 19.9%. According to Li Hong’s calculations, the unemployment rate of young people between 16 and 24 easily exceeds one-third, “three out of ten are unemployed. This is a bit more normal.”
Authoritarian regimes fear two things: soaring unemployment and inflation. The background of the Tiananmen Square Incident on June 4 was a serious inflation problem. Large-scale urban residents’ undertakings will even threaten the stability of the regime. In those days, Mao Zedong launched the trip to the mountains and the countryside that hurt millions of families in order to relieve the pressure of employment.
As we all know, all economic figures in China are fabricated. Li Qiang, executive director of China Labor Watch, analyzed that according to the CCP’s routine, such figures are generally hidden, and this unprecedented release of such a high unemployment rate may be motivated by political needs.
He said, “The report of this thing actually means that China’s economy is facing a crisis. The unemployment rate is so high, to a certain extent, it should be putting pressure on Xi Jinping.” “Because the 20th National Congress is about to open. , I think China is now in the process of competition.”
How much influence did the economic woes have on the Beidaihe meeting and the power struggle within the CCP?
Just two days after the release of this set of figures, the Beidaihe meeting ended, and Xi Jinping went north to inspect Liaoning. At the same time, Li Keqiang went south to Guangdong to seize the economy, and released a different signal of reform and opening up from Xi Jinping.
“Neue Zürich Zeitung” commented on the 18th that Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are at odds with each other, indicating that the discussion at this year’s Beidaihe meeting may be particularly intense, “because Xi Jinping hopes to confirm his third term at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the fall. . . . Xi’s plans are controversial within the party, and economic turmoil could create additional pressure within the party.”
However, the article argues that the deteriorating economy is not enough to jeopardize Xi Jinping’s position. He controls the military, police and intelligence services. Critics dare not stand up. exchange. “When it comes to 25 Politburo seats and 7 Standing Committee seats, Xi Jinping is likely to have to make concessions at the 20th Party Congress. In this case, the position of general secretary will be weakened,” the article said.