[Epoch Times March 16, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Xia Yu comprehensive report) The United States said that Russia has asked China to provide military assistance for its invasion of Ukraine, and the US diplomatic cable shows that the CCP has also revealed that it is willing to military aid Russia. Signal. Both Moscow and Beijing deny the allegation.
On Monday (March 14), White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi held a meeting in Rome. Before Sullivan and Yang met, U.S. officials began disclosing Russian requests for military and economic aid. When asked on Tuesday about the latest reports of Moscow seeking military support from Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian reiterated his earlier arguments that such claims were “false information.”
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the CCP has always refused to say that Russia has invaded Ukraine, and has also announced that it will not join the Western sanctions against Russia. China calls Russia its “most important strategic partner.” These factors have led to speculation about the extent to which Beijing is willing to support Russia.
What does America say?
Following initial media reports that Russia had requested military assistance from Beijing, unnamed U.S. officials told multiple media outlets that the U.S. had determined that China had signaled to Russia that Beijing was willing to provide military support for Ukrainian military operations, as well as financially. support to help fend off the impact of harsh sanctions imposed by the West.
The State Department’s cables to allies in Europe and Asia did not say whether Beijing had hinted at helping Russia in the future, or whether it had begun providing military support, nor at what stage of the conflict Beijing appeared willing to help.
CNN reported on Monday that diplomatic cables did not specify that aid had been provided. One official also said the U.S. warned in the cable that Beijing could deny it was willing to provide aid.
The United States has been closely monitoring Beijing’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war as Chinese President Xi Jinping has refused to criticize Russia’s aggression, while distancing itself from the Kremlin by calling for dialogue and reaffirming respect for the country’s territorial stance.
What can Beijing offer?
Experts say smaller items such as bullets and food are more likely than fighter jets and tanks if China’s military aids Russia.
Two people familiar with the matter told CNN that the assistance requested by Russia included prepackaged, non-perishable packages of military food, known in the United States as “ready meals,” or MREs.
One of the sources told CNN that Beijing may be willing to meet Russia’s request for food because it has not provided lethal aid that the West sees as provocative.
But Bloomberg reported that the United States has warned European allies that Russia is asking Beijing for armed drones when it invades Ukraine in late February, according to people familiar with the matter.
The request came as a shock to Biden administration officials, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. China is one of the world‘s largest exporters of armed drones and has sold them to countries including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates.
Drew Thompson, a former U.S. Defense Department official now at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, said Beijing “may want to avoid high-profile or high-priced arms sales to Russia in a conflict that would make it vulnerable to the conflict.” International Sanctions”.
Thompson said Beijing would be more willing to provide spare parts, consumables, ammunition and dual-use items that do not violate sanctions and may fall below the threshold of international retaliation. Beijing may also share surveillance information and intelligence, he said.
Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at Australia’s Lowy Institute, told The Associated Press that, given Washington’s warnings, any Chinese aid could involve “very basic things,” such as soldiers’ ration pack.
He added that it is almost impossible for Russia to integrate Chinese armaments into its armed forces in such a short period of time.
What happened at the meeting between Sullivan and Yang Jiechi
On Monday, Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, and Yang Jiechi, China’s top diplomat, held a seven-hour meeting in Rome. Sullivan directly raised U.S. concerns about Beijing’s siding with Moscow to Yang Jiechi, and named the possible consequences of doing so.
Bloomberg reported that a U.S. official called the meeting intense but declined to say whether the U.S. side had raised the issue of Russian military aid, while Yang Jiechi, as always, called on all parties to exercise restraint in the conflict.
There was no joint statement after the talks between the Chinese and American diplomats, and each statement spoke its own words.
The U.S. announcement was brief, saying that Sullivan had raised a series of U.S.-China relations issues and discussed Russia’s war in Ukraine extensively, as well as stressing the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between the U.S. and China.
However, the Chinese side released two announcements at the same time, one on Ukraine’s position and the other on the Taiwan issue. There is little overlap between the announcements from China and the United States.
There are differences within the CCP, and domestic pressure emerges
One source told CNN that the Chinese Communist Party leadership is not entirely aligned on how to respond to Russian aid requests. Two officials said Beijing’s desire to avoid economic consequences could limit its willingness to help Russia.
“Some people are genuinely concerned that their involvement could damage Western economic relationships that China relies on,” one of the sources told CNN.
U.S. officials said they believed Xi was disturbed by the Russian invasion and the performance of the Russian military, which has experienced logistical and strategic setbacks since the invasion began more than two weeks ago, CNN reported. While watching in Beijing, Xi was caught off guard because his own intelligence could not predict what would happen, officials said, despite weeks of U.S. warnings that Russia would invade Ukraine.
Signs of domestic pressure in China were evident on Tuesday, as U.S. warnings about Beijing’s financial and military support for Russia deepened investor fears of a possible decoupling of the world‘s two largest economies. The Hong Kong-listed Chinese stock index fell 6.6 percent to its lowest level since 2008, while the Shanghai Composite posted its biggest drop in two years.
China has paid some price for not publicly condemning Russia’s attack on a sovereign country. The outside world has begun to compare Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with whether the CCP has invaded Taiwan, which has led many countries in the Asia-Pacific region to strengthen their armaments to prevent the CCP’s aggression. Moreover, analysts attribute at least part of the recent market decline in China to concerns that Beijing will eventually fall into Moscow’s camp.
Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior fellow at CNA, a U.S. defense think tank, told Bloomberg that with the international community now focusing more on Taiwan, Taiwan may receive greater Western support than Ukraine, which undermines China’s support for Taiwan. ambition.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in the second half of this year. In a year when Chinese policymakers pledged to prioritize political stability, the Ukraine war has multiplied the challenges facing Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported.
“Xi has a lot to lose because he’s personally invested in his relationship with Putin,” Wisnick added, “while his Russia policy has clearly failed to deliver strategic dividends — but rather strategic losses — that will hurt his extension in office. s hard work.”
Rogovin argues that Beijing has no “obvious benefit” in helping Moscow.
Beijing also does not want to see the conflict worsen or be dragged into common belligerents, Thompson said, so any support from Beijing “will be measured and carefully calibrated.”
Responsible editor: Liu Ying#