[Epoch Times, June 02, 2021](Interviewed by Epoch Times reporters Lin Cenxin and Li Xin’an) Recently, the CCP’s three-child policy has set off public opinion, but under the pressure of life, the people’s willingness to give birth is obviously low. Expert analysis believes that the three-child policy will not increase the fertility rate. The CCP’s extreme population policy and the polarization between the rich and the poor have made it difficult for China’s economy to return.
On May 31, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to propose the implementation of “a couple can have three children policy and supporting measures.” This is another time to liberalize and adjust the family planning policy after the single-child policy in 2013 and the abolition of the one-child policy in October 2015 and the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy.
However, people generally report that with the “three mountains” of housing prices, education, and medical treatment remaining high, it is not feasible to have three children. Some netizens ridiculed, “This year’s only child is really happy, and can raise 4 elderly people and 3 children.” “I will bring 9 grandchildren and granddaughters after retirement at the age of 65.”
Demographic expert Yi Fuxian made a written comment on China’s (CCP) three-child policy on Twitter, saying that less than a month after announcing the 2020 census, the Chinese authorities are eager to announce the three-child policy. This may be because The real population data of the census frightens policy makers.
On May 11, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China announced that the country’s population was 1.41 billion (141,178 million), stating that China’s population has continued to grow at a low rate for the past 10 years. Yi Fuxian believes that this census does not publish real population data and is the “worst quality census”.
In his tweet, he emphasized that “the actual population in 2020 is less than 1.28 billion, which is a negative growth; the fertility rate is less than 1.1, less than 10 million births, and about 10.6 million deaths. This time the announcement that the population is still growing is due to false high births and deaths. The’false growth’ caused by underreporting.”
Yi Fuxian was one of the first experts and scholars to call for the abolition of family planning and the full liberalization of fertility. He believes that family planning is ineffective and harmful to the future. Family planning has changed the Chinese people’s concept of fertility and distorted China’s population structure. This is also the reason for the slowdown in China’s economic development.
He pointed out that the three-child policy is still a family planning population control, with population as the burden. Family planning is a half-century civil war between the Chinese government and the Chinese people. In order to end the civil war, the CCP must complete the shift in population policy.
He believes that the implementation of the second-child policy is too late and the intensity is too small, and the three-child policy will not increase the fertility rate. “China gets old before it gets rich, and aging is causing its economy to slow down. Local governments are facing a debt crisis and have no financial resources to encourage childbirth. For China, it will be difficult to stabilize the fertility rate at 1.2 in the future.”
Population policy extremes, economic accumulation is hard to return
Chinese independent economist Gong Shengli said in an interview with Epoch Times that China’s population policy is a disaster in human history. From heroic mothers in the 1950s and 1960s, encouraging multiple births, to having only one, go to extremes. The national policy will face east for a while and westward for a while. This is a disaster for mankind, leading to the polarization of China’s population policy.
He said, “Now that we return to three children, it can be said that China’s population policy is a return. That is to say, we made a mistake before and come back now. However, China’s current population policy has caused China’s demographic dividend to be eliminated. It is difficult and difficult. Neither, nor down, nor open, and it’s even harder to take it back.”
He pointed out that China’s current per capita annual income exceeds 10,000 U.S. dollars. It stands to reason that according to the United Nations standards, it has already escaped the poverty line. However, when it is in the hands of the Chinese people, 80% of the people cannot reach the average line, and wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people. . The gap between rich and poor in this country has also gone to extremes.
The cost of raising children is overwhelming. Xinhua News Agency conducted a poll on the official Weibo on May 31 on “Are you ready for the three-child policy?” Among the 31,000 participants, about 29,000 “don’t think about” the third child at all, indicating that more than 93.4% are not ready to have more children.
Gong Shengli said, “China’s three-child policy still has a lot to follow. Is there such an ecological environment? Is it possible for people from birth to death to exist? If there is no medical care, employment, and education, these are the most important things. Can the basic living security continue?”
He pointed out that education, medical care, housing, as well as water, electricity, coal, gas, and roads, the necessities of Chinese people’s lives now remain high, and they are the highest in the world. China is one of the most populous countries, with a large population and a large market, but it has the highest cost.
“From an economic point of view, this extreme population policy has made it difficult to return to the economy. Even if the three-child policy is released this time, it may take twenty or thirty years to improve the continuity of the three-child policy. It may be normalized. Therefore, a country’s national policy has been so wrong that it is hard to come back, and it is now going back. This is a terrible economic crisis.”
Population is not the only problem in China’s economy
Qin Peng, a political and economic analyst, told The Epoch Times that the results of last year’s census were not optimistic. The population growth is likely to be negative. Under this circumstance, the common people will have three children and some policies will be liberalized in order to allow everyone to have more children. It is not to improve people’s livelihood. The authorities announced in the name of the Politburo that this is also the post-Xi Jinping method, and the so-called process within the party is gone.
Qin Peng believes that the supporting policies introduced this time may alleviate some of the problems in marriage, childbirth, parenting, and old-age care. However, if the fundamental problem is not solved, more problems have emerged in the future. Governments at all levels have changed their methods to increase exploitation and recoup the lost. This is a major problem of non-elected, or even non-elected regimes that truly serve the people.
He pointed out that Chinese people do not want to have children, which is very similar to the reason and logic behind lying-flat doctrine. Lying flat includes not getting married and not having a baby. The reasons are house issues, education issues, 996 time issues… For many young people, they have been struggling to survive under this pressure for a long time. In fact, everyone is thinking, suddenly Lily flatism is like acupuncture, becoming a way of life and trend of thought.
According to the 2020 China Census, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over in China is 190 million, accounting for 13.5% of the total population. At the same time, the labor force aged 15-64 accounts for 68.6% of the total population, making the dependency ratio of people over 65 years old in China. Close to 20%. In other words, for every 100 laborers in China, nearly 20 elderly people need to be supported.
China’s economy is facing problems such as labor shortages and serious aging, and China’s demographic dividend has disappeared. But Qin Peng believes that population is not the only problem with the economy. What is more important is the issue of system, the issue of distribution, and the issue of justice.
He said, “The current population policy still uses everyone as a tool and a planned person to manipulate. Population has an impact on the economy, but it is self-deception to solve the population problem and solve the economic problem. The CCP is systemic, institutional, and theoretical. It is impossible to fix the problems caused by evil to solve these problems by patching.”
Editor in charge: Li Muen#