[Epoch Times, August 12, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Cheng Jing and Luo Ya interviewed and reported) After the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the CCP took retaliatory actions. In addition to military exercises, it imposed a series of economic sanctions on Taiwan. . However, many analysts believe that this only accounts for 0.04% of cross-strait trade, revealing that the CCP’s economic means are limited, and Beijing dare not go too far. If the status quo of the Taiwan Strait is changed, it will hurt itself.
Only affects cross-strait trade by 0.04%, and there are limited tools to vent the CCP’s economic pressure
The CCP recently imposed trade sanctions on Taiwan, including banning the import of Taiwanese citrus fruits, chilled white hairtail, frozen horse mackerel, biscuits and candies, and suspending the export of natural sand to Taiwan.
However, these Taiwanese product categories account for very little of the bilateral trade volume between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, China exported about US$3.5 million of natural sand to Taiwan last year, far less than the US$64 million combined by Australia and Vietnam, Taiwan’s main natural sand suppliers, which accounted for 70% of Taiwan’s purchases.
Another example is that last year, Taiwan’s citrus fruit exports to China were only US$10 million, which is quite small. Although China is also Taiwan’s largest buyer of citrus fruits.
According to the Bureau of International Trade of Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan’s exports to China last year amounted to US$113 billion and imports totaled about US$82 billion. Most of these are electrical, electronic and tech components, none of which have been locked down by Beijing.
According to a CNBC analysis, Beijing’s new trade blockade against Taiwan affects only about 0.04% of bilateral trade, making them more political than economic.
In addition, China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. Forty percent of Taiwan’s exports go to China, including Hong Kong.
However, Xu Zunci, director of the Taiwan-ASEAN Center of the Taiwan-based think tank “China Economic Research Institute”, told the BBC that the impact on Taiwan’s overall exports is not significant, because the trade volume restricted this time accounts for less than 0.5% of Taiwan’s annual exports to the mainland.
And what Beijing locks in is only relatively low-value trade items. Nick Marro, chief global trade analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), said that the impact on overall trade is minimal. In terms of share, the cross-strait economic connection is mainly in semiconductor and other intermediate electronic products.
“As a result, the existing measures will not change the economic ties between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait in any meaningful way,” Ma said, revealing that they have limited tools for economic pressure.
The CCP says that the exercise is normalized and analyzed: the potential threat may be very large
The CCP started the military exercise around Taiwan on August 4, launched 11 missiles, sealed off 7 sea areas and airspace, and then lifted it. It was not until August 10 that the military exercise was announced as “successful completion”, but it said that it would still normalize the direction of the Taiwan Strait. “War Readiness Patrol”.
Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina, told The Epoch Times that the CCP wants to make this military exercise a long-term and normalized exercise, which has a great potential threat. Cross-strait economic and trade relations are likely to undergo permanent changes, affecting foreign trade, sea and air transport.
The Taiwan Strait is a major transportation route connecting East Asia and the world. This year, about half of the world‘s container ships and about 90% of the largest cargo ships have crossed the Taiwan Strait.
Davy JH, an economist based in the United States, also told The Epoch Times that if the Taiwan Strait is unstable, it will have a profound impact on foreign investment in Taiwan. The impact on new investment will be huge. In the medium term, the transfer of alternative foreign trade orders cannot be ruled out, because as long as military operations break out, investors cannot afford it.
In addition, David Huang said that Beijing’s sanctions are mainly based on agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry, and the affected groups are closer to Taiwan’s grassroots population and regions. If transportation is blocked, it may have a great impact on Taiwan’s politics and psychology.
Beijing did not dare to go that far: analysis of changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait would hurt itself
However, the CCP’s exaggerated military exercises, the island of Taiwan is not isolated from the world. The French newspaper quoted Simon Leplâtre, a journalist from Le Monde, as saying that blocking Taiwan would be too costly for Beijing: 90% of the traffic through the Taiwan Strait comes from China.
Moreover, the place where China crossed the border only involves the middle line of the Taiwan Strait, not the 12 nautical mile line. “And this is where serious incidents can happen. China didn’t go that far because Taiwan’s line of defense is credible,” said Du Maozhi, director of the Asia Program at the Montaigne Institute. “Taiwanese continue to go about their business. .”
Li Chun, an expert on Taiwan’s WTO delegation, told DW that once the conflict escalates, China will also face serious consequences. Once democratic countries impose sanctions on China, the CCP will suffer a heavy blow. The Chinese economy is highly dependent on exports to the United States and Europe. China’s exports are also inseparable from components from Taiwan.
Li Chun said: China is the world‘s factory, but the core components of some products come from Taiwan. Assuming that the trade between China and Taiwan is completely interrupted, then China’s status as the world‘s factory will face severe challenges.
In addition, the United States has repeatedly expressed its opposition to the CCP’s changing the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Beijing’s “overreaction” was a major escalation of provocation, an attempt to “establish a new status quo for a new normal,” which neither the United States nor the world would accept. The United States will also conduct “standard air and sea crossing operations” through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks.
On August 12, Kurt Campbell, White House Indo-Pacific affairs coordinator, said at a press conference that the CCP increased pressure on Taiwan under the pretext of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, trying to change the status quo and endanger the Taiwan Strait and beyond. peace and stability in the wider region. The United States will continue to fly, sail and operate within the limits permitted by international law.
Valerie Nikay, head of the Asia region of the French Foundation for Strategic Studies, believes that “the US is worried that they cannot help Taiwan without suffering losses. But the US will not do nothing to allow China to occupy Taiwan because the geopolitical The strategic consequences are too great.”
Responsible editor: Fang Ming #