September 30, 2022 10:11 am
The Brazilians say that those of October 2 will be the most important since the return of democracy in 1985, after the end of the military dictatorship. Voters know well the two main contenders: on the one hand Jair Bolsonaro, outgoing president and populist with authoritarian tendencies who has dangerously split the country.
On the other hand, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, a former trade unionist who obtained two terms as president before ending up in prison for an accusation from which he was later acquitted. Lula is 76 years old and no longer wants to revolutionize Brazil, but is above all concerned with blocking the way for the dangerous Bolsonaro.
The polls predict a victory for Lula, perhaps in the first round, certainly in the second. But Bolsonaro follows the script written by Donald Trump, which represents his model of him: if he loses, he will argue that the elections are rigged. This is the great fear of the Brazilians and the reason why important personalities from the center and the right have approached Lula, the man of the left. The goal is to avoid a Brazilian version of the post-election chaos in the United States. It is clear that the Brazilian elections are an important test.
Wave in retreat
It is a test case for democracy that goes beyond the borders of Brazil. Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was part of the wave of successes achieved by parties sometimes described as “populist”, certainly “anti-system”, or even far right.
The exercise of power did not do the parties and men favored by protest and popular anger good
These categories include the victory of Brexit in the 2016 referendum, at the end of an election campaign full of lies; a few months later, the election of Donald Trump, who had crowned a billionaire demagogue. In 2018, the success of the 5-star Movement in Italy, associated with that of the far-right League, had resulted in a strange government alliance. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro had involved the largest country in Latin America in this rebellion of voters who considered themselves penalized by the prevailing globalization. Today, however, not many traces of that wave remain.
The exercise of power did not do the parties and men favored by protest and popular anger good. The defeat of Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom is the absolute symbol of this. There is a limit to the lies that citizens can accept… Trump has been beaten even if he remains a threat, while in Italy the 5-star Movement has fallen from his pedestal. It remains Bolsonaro, who on October 1 will find out if he has escaped this game to the massacre.
This does not mean that the feeling of anger expressed by those votes has disappeared. Giorgia Meloni’s victory in Italy is proof of this: her far-right party, Brothers of Italy, refused to be part of the national unity government led by Mario Draghi and won the elections.
Recent history shows that anti-system populists rode a real rage, but failed to provide adequate responses once they got into government. Democratic alternation regularly ends up penalizing them, provided that democracy is respected. In the current climate this is far from a guarantee.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)