The last US soldier left Kabul, ending the longest war in US history, which ends in defeat. The images arriving for two weeks from Kabul airport or those of the return home of the coffins of the soldiers killed in the attack carried out by the Islamic State (IS) group have provoked lapidary comments on the end of the American empire. But how are things really?
The defeat in Afghanistan is a major event, but it is equally true that the history of the United States is full of it, starting with the fall of Saigon in 1975, with which a parallel is often drawn these days. However, it must be said that American losses in Vietnam were 27 times higher than those of the war in Afghanistan. The trauma at the time was enormous, but it didn’t stop the United States from remaining a superpower.
Washington’s other strategic failures include the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979, with the humiliating hostage of US diplomats in Tehran and the failed raid decided by President Carter. In 1993, in Somalia, a US engagement quickly turned into disaster, and Bill Clinton decided to withdraw his troops. It was another scorching failure in front of far less aggressive fighters. The same is true of what happened in Iraq in 2003, a disastrous conflict that produced the rise of IS.
Commitments reaffirmed
Is the Afghan catastrophe really that significant? In reality, what matters is neither the military fiasco (which as we have seen has several precedents) nor the chaos of the evacuation of Kabul, which will remain an indelible stain on the world‘s first army. What matters more than anything else are the political consequences, which will fuel numerous debates.
It must not be misinterpreted, because the damage could be enormous. First of all, it must be made clear that Joe Biden’s America has not become isolationist. The president personally reiterated his commitments to countries linked to the United States by the treaties, such as those of Europe belonging to NATO, South Korea or Japan.
The main lesson we can draw from the Kabul affair is that Biden, in the footsteps of Barack Obama and Donald Trump, has decided that America will no longer be the gendarme of the world. It’s an underlying trend: the power of the 1990s has downsized its ambitions and redefined what it considers its strategic interests.
Does this mean that the credibility of the United States is undermined? This is the crucial question facing both allies and adversaries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskii is currently in Washington and hopes to obtain assurances from Biden on the US position in the event of a conflict with Russia. What will Biden do if Putin threatens Ukraine, as happened last spring? Europe would like to know too …
Afghanistan raised the issue of the reliability of US guarantees. Washington’s opponents rejoice, starting with the Chinese who point out to the Taiwanese that they can no longer count on American support. But do Beijing’s leaders really think that the United States would remain passive in the event of a Chinese attack on the island? It would be a risky bet.
The only ones who can dispel the doubt sown by the Afghan bankruptcy are of course the United States, which remains the first world power. But the world has every reason to wonder what use will be made of this power in the future.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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