The moment of truth is approaching between Mali and France after months of tensions between the two states, theoretically allies in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel.
The latest example of the distrust between Paris and Bamako came when Malian Prime Minister Choguel Maiga spoke of France in an interview with Le Monde, calling it “our main ally, or at least we believe it is”. In this way, Maiga resumed the accusations of “abandonment” made to France after the announcement of the end of the Barkhane operation and the reorganization of the French contingent, despite the Paris government reiterating that everything was done in concert with the Malian one.
If there is a clear break, it will come due to the possible decision of the Malian military junta to hire Russian mercenaries from the private company Wagner, led by a man close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Le Monde, the Malian Prime Minister has not resolved the doubts on the matter. “I do not know Wagner, at present they are just rumors”, he said, but immediately after he hinted the opposite, declaring that “our government has understood that relying on only one partner risks being abandoned at any moment”. The second partner, of course, is Russia.
Situation nuanced
It is difficult to imagine the French and European forces operating in the same country as the Russian Wagner mercenaries. The arrival of the latter in the Central African Republic led to the suspension of military collaboration with France. If this scenario were to materialize, a serious crisis would break out between France and Mali.
A few weeks ago, when the first information began to leak, the position of Paris was clear: “Either us or them”. Today the situation is less clear-cut, also due to the operational difficulties that the withdrawal of French forces from Mali would present for the continuation of counter-terrorism operations. Niger offers an uncertain “alternative plan”, and Chad, more welcoming, is far from the priority area of action, the region of the “three borders” between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
France is not the only country to question this. On 18 October, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, whose country maintains hundreds of men in the field on a training mission, raised the possibility of imposing sanctions in the event of the arrival of mercenaries.
Why this obstinacy of the Malian leaders? If the Central African precedent can give us an indication, it is possible that Wagner offers a praetorian guard to President Touadéra. The leaders of the Malian military junta, whose legitimacy is scarce, may decide to pay for protection that France no longer intends to offer.
The question of the legitimacy of the regime is the second major issue of the moment. Last year, the authors of the first coup were committed to organizing new elections in February 2022. The current regime, born of a “coup in the coup”, is calling this calendar into question. “A few weeks or months of postponement are not the end of the world,” said the Malian prime minister.
On October 17, the countries of the region ordered Colonel Assimi Goita, the strong man of Bamako, to respect the calendar, a “clear” and “unambiguous” message according to the African delegation. Will this be enough to make the regime surrender? It is by no means certain, and pessimism reigns in Paris. At this point it is likely that political and military chaos will soon be added to the war against terrorist groups in the Sahel from which no one will emerge victorious.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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