June 17, 2022 9:54 am
On June 16, the word “historical” was used to define the visit to Kiev of the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Romania, as well as the affirmation of their “unconditional” support for Ukraine at war. The formula is often improper, but in this case it makes sense.
The journey of the leaders of the first three economies of the European Union marks a turning point in the war that has now lasted for four months, and also a stage in the path of European growth.
The event highlights in particular the position of France and Germany, aligned with the unhesitating support for Ukraine long requested by the countries of the Union’s east flank. It is the end, at least for the moment, of the evident gap between the traditional protagonists of the Union and the countries that are at the forefront due to their history and geography.
Turnaround
Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis have accepted candidate status for membership in Ukraine, an issue that previously divided Europe. The last reserves of the Union’s heavyweights have been canceled, and even if there are still some reticent countries, the European Council of 23 June promises to be under excellent auspices.
Why this turnaround? The explanation is first of all geopolitical. If the Ukrainian war, as Westerners believe, has become a test of international power relations, then European divisions are dangerous.
For France and Germany, the trip to Kiev marks a realist awakening
After the fateful decision to invade Ukraine on February 24, Vladimir Putin miscalculated the reaction of the West. The Russian president was counting on Europe’s passivity, but that was not the case. He also believed that the United States was exhausted by failure in Kabul and internal divisions, and instead put them back in the saddle as leader of the Western bloc.
It was time for Paris and Berlin to choose. Both countries have had to review their strategic position. Macron has believed for too long (and in vain) that his mediator attitude allowed him to influence Russia, while in Berlin the turning point was even more marked, after decades of blindness to the resurrection of Russia. For France and Germany, the trip to Kiev marks a realist awakening.
Moscow received the news of this visit with contempt. Dmitry Medvedev, the man who in the past replaced Putin just long enough for a mandate, joked about the “useless” movement of “eat frogs, sausages and spaghetti”.
But the truth is that in the face of a conflict that promises to be lasting, the return of a trajectory of unity of the 27 is of great importance. The support guaranteed to Ukraine would not be possible with a European Union divided with respect to the path to be taken and above all with a mistrust towards the historical countries of Western Europe.
The next meetings – of the European Union, of NATO and of the G7 – should show a unity affected only by the Hungarian or Turkish exceptions. After the frictions of recent weeks, on June 16 the Ukrainian Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskij was able to declare that “a page has been turned”. Until a few days ago it was not at all obvious.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)