Home » The Inland Revenue aims to recover 12.6 billion from tax evasion

The Inland Revenue aims to recover 12.6 billion from tax evasion

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The scheme is clear and the former head of cabinet of the Mef and now undersecretary to the Prime Minister’s office reminded the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco: to strengthen the IT infrastructure to simplify taxpayers’ obligations but above all to reduce the distance between what should be enter the state coffers and how much taxpayers actually pay as taxes. And this last objective is already encrypted: in 2023 the tax gap will have to be reduced by 5% compared to the gap of 2019. On balance it is just over 4 billion euros which however become more than 12 billion with the reduction 15% tax gap regime in 2024.

Moreover, it is a downward sum because, as Roberto Garofoli writes in the attachment to the short letter on the targets that each administration will have to hit in the name of the Pnrr, the difference between collected and due referring to 2019 must not take into account the differential on excise duties. and imposed on the brick, as the IMU can be.

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In any case, achieving the objective of reducing the tax gap means structurally recovering resources that until now only feed the undeclared. An ambitious result which, according to the indications sent to the Mef, can be achieved by following above all two main guidelines. On the one hand, the enhancement of compliance or the spontaneous fulfillment of the taxpayer invited to clarify any inconsistent positions between what has been declared and what has actually been paid to the tax authorities. The second line of action is the completion of the pseudonymisation and big data analysis process to enhance risk analyzes in the selection of subjects to be monitored.

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Under the first front there is a very clear progression indicated in Garofoli’s letter, which points to objectives that are not only quantitative but also qualitative. The first goal is set at the end of 2022: to increase the number of alerts sent to taxpayers by 20% and revenue by 15%. In both cases, the “surcharge” must be compared to the last year before the pandemic (2019) and therefore should translate, respectively, into almost 2.6 million letters and 2.5 billion in recovery. But – and this is the qualitative target – the number of false positives must be reduced by at least 5%. In practice, the use of databases must increasingly aim at targeted communications, that is, directed at taxpayers for whom there are really situations of anomaly. The second milestone, on the other hand, is set at the end of 2024 with the number of letters to be increased by 40% and the revenue by 30% again compared to the 2019 result. On balance this means aiming for almost 3 million letters and 2.8 billion additional revenue. And with a view to accompanying compliance, the path already taken with pre-filled VAT must also be read. In September there is the first appointment with the pre-filled registers, but we must also arrive at the declaration which, however, will start from 2022 operations and therefore will arrive starting from 10 February 2023. All of this will affect a very large number of companies and professionals: 2.3 million VAT numbers.

As anticipated, the second line of action aims to finally fine-tune the pseudo-anonymization of data, provided for by the 2020 Budget law. The idea is to use the information assets of the administration to build evasion risk models through data in advance. anonymized. From there, then, the risk indices could be brought into reality and proceeded to the phase of checks on the subjects considered most dangerous. The development – given the delicacy of the information processed – requires finding a square with the Privacy Guarantor. After that, it will be a question of developing the computer models. But now Garofoli’s recommendation could speed things up.

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