Home News The Iranian nuclear negotiation reopens in a climate of pessimism – Pierre Haski

The Iranian nuclear negotiation reopens in a climate of pessimism – Pierre Haski

by admin

November 29, 2021 10:12 AM

At the beginning of the year, with Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House, the recovery of the nuclear deal with Iran seemed obvious, because Biden was in favor and Iran had a vested interest in negotiating because of the impact of economic sanctions.

On the other hand, on November 29, the negotiators will find themselves in Vienna, after a five-month break, in a rather pessimistic atmosphere. Several elements have complicated the situation since 2018, when Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal negotiated by Barack Obama.

Iran has gradually resumed its uranium enrichment program, ignoring the transparency obligations under the 2015 agreement. This year, a more intransigent government has been installed in Tehran, which has raised the bar of demands.

The Western, Russian, Chinese and Iranian diplomats who meet in Vienna are no longer certain of reaching a conclusion, with all the risks that failure would entail.

An aggravating factor is the support given to Iran by China, in the context of tensions with the United States

What complicates the negotiation is above all the disappearance of trust. The Iranians are demanding guarantees that a change in Washington would not lead to a new exit from the agreement similar to that intended by Trump, and are demanding compensation for the impact of US sanctions introduced when Iran complied with the terms of the agreement.

Westerners, for their part, fear that Iran is beating around the bush to allow its scientists to advance towards the acquisition of the nuclear weapon, both in terms of quantity and content of uranium and technical skills. Fueling the concern is the failure of the efforts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEia) to activate surveillance cameras in some key facilities, as foreseen by the agreement.

An aggravating factor is the support given to Iran by China, in the context of tensions with the United States. Today, in fact, Beijing offers an alternative to Tehran.

IT sabotage
In the event of a rupture, a real risk of conflict would emerge, because Israel and its new allies in the gulf do not intend to allow Iran to acquire the atomic bomb, a weapon that only Israel possesses in the region and which if built by Iran would change the strategic balance.

Israel has already carried out several sabotage operations on the Iranian nuclear program (not claimed), including cyber attacks, killings of scientists and disruptive actions such as the one that interrupted the distribution of gasoline in the country. Iran responded with a series of cyber attacks in Israel. These operations, less conspicuous than a bombing of Iranian structures, will multiply if the negotiation fails.

commercial break

The other risk is that of a minimal agreement, which would not restore trust and would lead, once again, to a progression in this war that takes place in the shadows. It would be a hindsight victory for Trump and all those who have never believed in the possibility of an agreement with Iran.

Gone are the days when crowds took to the streets of Tehran in 2015 to cheer Iranian negotiators naively believing that the country would find its place in the world.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)

.

0 comment
0

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy