The Makiïvka disaster shows the vulnerability of the Russian military – Pierre Haski

The Russian army has suffered one of the heaviest losses in a single Ukrainian missile attack: the dead soldiers would be 63 according to Moscow, 400 according to some Russian military bloggers and according to the assessments of the Kiev army.

Disaster is loaded with meanings. Not only because of the number of victims, but also the circumstances. The servicemen were housed in a civilian building in Makiivka in the occupied Donetsk region, which also contained an arms depot (which explains the number of dead). Russian bloggers, some personalities in Moscow and all military experts denounce the amateurishness of such an arrangement, a perfect target located just 15 kilometers from the Ukrainian lines.

But that’s not all: the soldiers killed were conscripts, sent to Ukraine as part of the partial mobilization ordered by Vladimir Putin in September. Ill-prepared, ill-supervised and unmotivated, they died even before taking action. This reinforces the feeling that these soldiers are essentially cannon fodder, hastily sent to the front to plug the holes created by the losses of the first months of the war.

No optimism
On the Russian front, criticism rained down from those who, after the first setbacks, incessantly underlined the army’s incapacity. The frustration of these people is also due to the fact that in September, with the appointment of General Sergei Surovikin as head of operations, it seemed that a man capable of restoring order to a disastrous offensive had arrived. On the eve of the attack, the general had received a new decoration from Vladimir Putin himself.

It is worth noting that the voices of anger after the Makiivka disaster are not against the war, only against the way it is conducted and above all lost. Those who oppose the war are either in prison or abroad, like the hundreds of thousands of Russians who managed to escape during the mobilization.

The recurring question remains: Will the Russian population meekly accept the official discourse justifying the war and the colossal losses that accompany it?

The question, for the moment, does not have an answer. Despite sporadic videos of resistance to conscription and the revival of soldiers’ mothers committees that had been very active during the war in Chechnya, no real opposition to the war is tolerated in the country.

Promoting the financial and material benefits of enlistment in the military highlights the insufficiency of the patriotic argument for increasing numbers. The announcement eight days ago by the army that new recruits will be able to freeze their sperm so they can procreate even in the event of death at the front is surprising. Certainly optimism does not triumph in Russia.

All this portends new Russian offensives. As Putin reiterated in his New Year message, victory remains the goal. But the Makiivka disaster shows that the Russian military is vulnerable.

The only strategy that Moscow’s military consistently adopts is to bomb cities, with civilians as targets. It is a punitive strategy, which however will not affect the will of the Ukrainians.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)