The nodes of the Cop26 summit on climate change – Federica Genovese

About 25,000 people are expected in Glasgow this autumn for the annual summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).

It will be the 26th Conference of the Parties, also known as COP26, and all 197 states that are part of the UNFCCC will be represented. In its role as COP26 host country, the UK asked participants to propose more ambitious 2030 emissions reduction targets to help achieve zero impact by mid-century, raise contributions for climate adaptation and funds for mitigation interventions, and to finalize the implementation rules of the Paris climate agreement signed in 2015.

This round of UN climate talks was supposed to take place in 2020 but was postponed due to the pandemic. On the sidelines of the main talks, which will take place from 31 October to 12 November 2021, Scotland’s second largest city will host a series of meetings and events involving leaders, scientists and civil society organizations from around the world.

In a year marked by catastrophic floods, forest fires and heat waves, taking action to tackle climate change is more urgent than ever. So what will we talk about during the Glasgow negotiations?

In discussion
Many of the issues on the table have remained unresolved since the historic Paris Agreement was concluded, in which most countries of the world have pledged to try to limit global warming to less than two degrees, possibly 1.5. degrees.

The possible functioning of the international emissions markets, which are the subject of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, continues to be at the center of controversy. Within these markets, virtuous countries that reduce emissions more than expected should receive credits that they can then resell to countries that fail to meet their commitments.

However, making emissions markets operational is very difficult. Developing countries fear that these exchanges will allow rich countries to avoid substantial reductions in emissions internally while providing a marginal contribution to reducing emissions abroad through the purchase of carbon credits. Rich countries argue that developing countries could incorporate emissions reductions sold as credits by adding them to their internal emission reduction targets, effectively counting them twice.

Furthermore, by maintaining the old credits accumulated under the previous system, the one established by the Kyoto protocol of 1997, emerging economies such as Brazil and India and economies with intense production of carbon dioxide such as Australia and Russia could reach the new emission reduction targets without further efforts, however, going against the spirit of the Paris Agreement, which aims at increasingly ambitious targets over time.

Difficulties are also expected in the negotiations on the support to be offered to the poorest countries on their path towards more sustainable development. The Paris Agreement recognizes the threats posed by increased floods and droughts in countries most vulnerable to climate change. Under the provisions on losses and damages contained in Article 8, the agreement promises the poorest countries technical and financial assistance, but it is not yet clear how this will be implemented.

In addition, a green light is awaited for the disbursement of one hundred billion dollars a year (86 billion euros) in loans to combat global warming. Developing countries need it to initiate an ecological transition, but to date, rich countries have failed to deliver on their 2010 pledge. Although President Joe Biden’s recent announcement to double US contributions could encourage other rich economies to do likewise, the shortfall would continue to be considerable.

Blow it all up
The list of open issues on the Cop26 tables is long and the stakes are high. However, the most serious complications could arise from the context in which the negotiations take place. The lack of vaccines and the high costs of travel could hinder the presence of all delegations: those from the poorest countries have warned that they could have difficulty moving to Scotland. Given that many details could be dealt with remotely, a failure of the negotiations is not taken for granted. But it is also true that especially the representatives of the poorest countries risk being physically absent, preventing them from having tight control over the outcome of the summit.

Cop26 will then take place at a time when international relations are particularly tense. The aftermath of Brexit continues to keep the atmosphere cold between the UK and the European Union. The United States and China, responsible for more than 40 percent of global emissions, are embroiled in ongoing diplomatic and strategic challenges. The recently negotiated security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US (Aukus) to balance Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific region has angered France, which in turn could undermine hopes for cooperation. at Cop26.

However, the biggest obstacles are not in Glasgow, but in the various capitals. Each country is fighting an internal battle that will determine COP26’s international credibility.

Some countries have already withdrawn from the UNFCCC in the past. Canada’s exit from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011 and the United States‘ temporary exit from the Paris Agreement in 2017 arose from internal reasons, and domestic politics has long been a decisive factor in determining individual climate commitments. villages.

Modest ambitions
The Paris Agreement framework recognizes this and allows governments to make climate commitments that may vary from country to country so that everyone’s action becomes progressively more ambitious. But a United Nations report published in 2020 notes that considering the commitments made so far by governments, the world climate will still register a warming of three degrees. We are far from the ambition that would serve us at this moment.

Yet there is hope. While so many government proposals risk remaining just empty words, the latest spike in gas prices in Europe and the recent fuel shortage in the UK are an incentive for some governments, including the UK hosting COP26, to accelerate on some elements of their emission reduction strategies, for example by electrifying domestic heating and means of transport. Similarly, the success of the Greens in the recent German elections, with 14.8 per cent of the vote, unequivocally signals public support for climate action in one of the most important economies.

As much as we may pay attention to the UN climate negotiations, national policies in this regard and the role played by voters in choosing the ruling class we will see at work on the global stage must always be kept in mind.

(Translation by Giusy Muzzopappa)