Exactly one month is left until the electoral roll is filed. The appointment is in fact set for 22 August. And never like this time will it be a difficult puzzle to put together. The combination of the reform of the parliamentary cut (passed from 945 to 600) and the distortion of the weight of the individual political forces during this crazy legislature is destined to heat up the confrontation within the parties and between allies.
At the moment the only certain coalition is that of the center-right. The wide field, which should have contained the entire center-left and sealed the alliance between the Pd and M5s, after the words of Enrico Letta (“impossible to ally with those who brought down the government”), and Giuseppe Conte’s response has definitively disappeared . It is not yet understood whether the dem will go alone or in coalition with those centrist parties that have taken Mario Draghi’s agenda as the guiding star, in addition to the left and the Greens. Without alliances, in fact, the Democratic Party risks handing over all the seats of the uninominal – equal to about one third of the total – to the center-right also those of the so-called red zones, made even more contestable by the greater territorial extension of the colleges following the reform. And that is why at the moment all the polls attribute to the coalition led by the Brothers of Italy over 50% of the seats in Parliament.
Node subdivision of the colleges
However, the polls are at the center of the clash between Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi. Both the Knight and the leader of the League would like an almost equal subdivision of the colleges. Meloni, however, does not fit: “Reference has always been made to the average of the polls and it must also apply this time”. The problem is that his allies are in bad shape. The cut of the parliamentarians hit Forza Italia hard but also the League. In the best case, Salvini should give up about sixty deputies and senators, and at worst over 80. Not only that. Unlike in the past, when the Northern Carroccio dominated and therefore overwhelmed the colleges, now Fdi has wrested several fiefdoms from the Po Valley which Meloni certainly will not give up, while Salvini in the meantime is also called upon to face the offensive of the governors of the League who are not willing to leave him the last word on the lists.
A problem that is much less felt in Forza Italia. In the end, Berlusconi always decides. And this time the former prime minister is determined to make a clean sweep of the “dissidents”. Also because there are few places, he needs a patrol of faithful deputies. At the moment Forza Italia is listed below 10 percent. Berlusconi is convinced to increase consensus, but estimates fear that he will have to leave between 80 and 130 MPs at home.
The evaporation of 5-star consents
There are of course those who are worse off, much worse. In 2018 M5s took almost 33% in the elections and brought 227 deputies and 112 senators to Parliament. Today, more than half of that consensus has evaporated. Furthermore, the reform wanted by the pentastellati has further reduced the possibilities. A bloodbath is looming for the Cinquestelle. At the moment the estimate of the cut between deputies and senators fluctuates between -248 and -288. On the other hand, those who do not fare badly are the Democratic Party. Yes, because Enrico Letta’s party has already suffered the cut with the split of the Renzians, which stole about forty parliamentarians from the Democratic Party. Furthermore, the dems are currently above the electoral result achieved in 2018. Here then is that the numerical figure certainly becomes not exciting but less dramatic: the fork is in fact between -10 and -53.