daily economic news
2023-01-29 21:24:44
◎”Recently, many places have issued the No. 1 document on stabilizing the economy, actively implementing the spirit of the central meeting and documents, and clearly supporting and boosting housing consumption, including providing credit support, reducing taxes, and issuing housing subsidies. In the short term, demand from various places End policy is expected to be further strengthened, and cost reduction and threshold reduction are still the policy direction.”
Every reporter Zhen Sujing Every editor Wei Wenyi
Just after the Spring Festival holiday, housing consumption has become a hot word frequently mentioned in various places.
On January 28, at the provincial high-quality development conference held in Guangdong, Zhang Yong, party secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that this year will vigorously promote housing consumption, implement differentiated housing credit policies according to urban policies, and actively support rigid housing. and improved housing needs.
On January 29, a reporter from “Daily Economic News” learned from several bank outlets and intermediary channels in Zhengzhou that the mortgage interest rate for the first home in Zhengzhou dropped to 3.8% from now on, becoming the first city in the country to relax policies after the Spring Festival.
In fact, since the central financial office released housing consumption with a heavy voice a month ago, the loosening of property market policies in various regions has accelerated. The economic boosting meetings and documents of various provinces and cities across the country before and after the Spring Festival have included the boosting of housing consumption in the economic development of the new year. in the general framework. According to incomplete statistics, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong and other places have successively issued relevant measures to stabilize economic development.
A number of people in the industry said in an interview with the “Daily Economic News” reporter on January 29 that housing consumption is not a new concept, but a recent feature is that housing consumption should be included in the macroeconomic framework, and its status is improving. It will play a more important role in the “pull power” of the economy in 2023. Specifically, the pace of stabilizing the economy in various places this year has obviously accelerated, and it is necessary to make up for the lost three years.
Strong signs of restarting housing consumption in many places at the beginning of the year
In addition to Guangdong Province, before and after the Spring Festival, many places have released relevant measures to stabilize the economy and promote development to support reasonable housing consumption.
On January 28, Xishui County, Guizhou Province held an economic work conference and investment promotion work promotion conference, clearly accelerating the recovery of consumption. In the field of real estate, more efforts will be made to implement stimulus policies such as issuing consumer coupons, boosting high-quality goods, and deed tax rebates to comprehensively promote urban and rural residents to increase consumption such as housing and automobiles.
On January 27, according to the WeChat public account “Liaoning Release”, the People’s Government of Liaoning Province recently issued a notice of “Several Policy Measures to Further Stabilize the Economy in Liaoning Province”. Housing consumption and second-hand housing transactions can be “transferred with mortgage”.
On January 24, Jiaozuo, Henan planned and launched 100 policy measures centering on releasing consumption potential, guaranteeing and improving people’s livelihood and other six aspects, guiding counties (cities, districts) to introduce specific measures for housing purchase subsidies and issuing housing purchase vouchers, and supporting talents to purchase houses and settle down To promote reasonable housing consumption for residents, and at the same time clearly extend the deed tax subsidy policy.
On January 20, Kunming, Yunnan Province issued “Several Policies and Measures to Accelerate the Stabilization and Improvement of the Economy”. Participation, online and offline “Colorful Cloud House Buying Festival” publicity and promotion, support real estate companies to carry out marketing outside the city, improve the level of high-quality medical and educational resources in newly built communities, and attract mid-to-high-end house buyers from inside and outside the province to speed up their return.
On January 16, Jiangsu issued “Several Policies and Measures on Promoting the Overall Improvement of Economic Operations” (Jiangsu Province No. 1 Document), which separately listed “promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market”, from individual tax, provident fund, relocation and resettlement, Price records and other aspects support the demand for housing purchases.
Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, told reporters through WeChat on January 29 that the overall idea of housing consumption continues the general spirit and overall deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2022, especially since the fourth quarter, and also coincides with The spirit of the 2023 Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Working Conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
“It is difficult to start real estate investment without demand pull”
Huang Yu, executive vice-president of the Middle Finger Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter on WeChat on January 29 that the No. 1 document on stabilizing the economy has been issued in many places recently, actively implementing the spirit of the central meeting and documents, clearly supporting and boosting housing consumption, including providing credit support, tax reduction, and housing purchase subsidies. In the short term, demand-side policies in various regions are expected to be further strengthened, and cost reduction and threshold reduction are still the policy direction.
Regarding the recent resumption of housing consumption, Song Hongwei, research director of the Tongce Research Institute, publicly wrote that there are two reasons. The first is the risk of the real estate industry. In 2022, the indicators of various aspects of real estate (land acquisition, investment, new construction, sales) Both continued to decline, especially in November, the decline further expanded; followed by the needs of economic development.
According to Song Hongwei’s analysis, from the perspective of the external environment and the “Strategic Planning Outline for Expansion of Domestic Demand (2022-2035)” issued by our country, the core issue of domestic demand-driven economy lies in consumption. Limited by the pressure of local finances (revenue from land sales) and the financing restrictions of urban investment platform companies, the marginal effectiveness of infrastructure investment in 2023 will decline, which requires real estate to play an investment-driven role. Sales are a leading indicator of investment, and it is difficult to start real estate investment without demand.
In fact, in order to stimulate real estate demand, a total of about 600 real estate market loosening policies were introduced in 2022, but the results were not very satisfactory. In this context, how to start housing consumption, Song Hongwei believes that there must be expectations of rising housing prices, and the increase may not be large, but the trend must be upward. The previous upward cycles of real estate have been realized under the expectation of rising housing prices; The law of conduction among them is that first-tier cities affect second-tier cities, and second-tier cities affect third- and fourth-tier cities, that is, transmission from high-energy-level cities to low-energy-level cities. Based on this, he predicts that first-tier cities will join the ranks of demand-side policy adjustments, and policies that restrict demand release will be adjusted appropriately.
On January 29, Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said in an interview with reporters on WeChat that with the full liberalization of epidemic prevention and control, various types of consumption will be boosted, the employment rate will rise, and income will rebound. In 2023, the Chinese economy will Development and improvement are imminent. At the same time, the housing consumption market has been involved in the economic stabilization measures of local governments since the beginning of the year, and the real estate industry will also play a pivotal role in economic development, and the proportion is expected to increase further.
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Cover image source: Daily Economic News data map