Home » The siege of Mariupol contradicts the negotiations between the Russians and the Ukrainians – Pierre Haski

The siege of Mariupol contradicts the negotiations between the Russians and the Ukrainians – Pierre Haski

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The siege of Mariupol contradicts the negotiations between the Russians and the Ukrainians – Pierre Haski

How to assess the progress of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine? Or rather, let’s ask the question differently: can we hope to be closer to the end of the war after the meeting between the representatives of the two countries organized on March 29 in Istanbul? Everyone would like to believe it, but the reality is that we are still a long way off.

The first reason for this observation is the basic rule of any negotiation: nothing is decided until there is certainty of an agreement. The second, more important, is that many disturbing aspects are still pending, and this considerably dampens the hopes created by the March 29 announcements.

The Russian general staff announced that it would loosen its grip around the capital Kiev to “foster the trust” of the negotiators during the face-to-face between Russians and Ukrainians. The Ukrainian authorities, on the other hand, have made known their proposals, which contain important concessions to Russia.

Humanitarian corridors in difficulty
However, the situation on the ground says the opposite of what this relatively positive diplomatic climate suggests. First of all, because the Russian army presents the reduction of military pressure as a gesture of goodwill, where in the north the Russians are in difficulty or even retreating. In recent days, the Ukrainian army has carried out a counter-offensive that has allowed it to recover positions in the Kiev region.

But above all, the situation of Mariupol, the martyr city on the sea of ​​Azov, in the south, clearly contradicts this idea of ​​progress. One hundred and sixty thousand civilians are besieged in this port city which has suffered terrible bombings. On March 29, Vladimir Putin refused to give the green light to French President Emmanuel Macron, who had called him on the phone to propose a humanitarian operation with the support of Turkey, the country where the negotiations are taking place, and of Greece, for reasons of the historical presence of a Greek community in Mariupol.

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Relying on international humanitarian law, France has asked for a truce to allow civilians to leave in the direction they prefer, with the delivery of humanitarian aid currently blocked. Putin stated that he would reflect on the proposal. Not a very encouraging response considering that this is the most serious situation in Ukraine, as well as contradicting the other announcements.

The reality is that Putin needs to take over Mariupol in order to have clear success in this war which is becoming more and more expensive. Furthermore, Mariupol is the key to territorial continuity between the breakaway republics of Donbass and the Crimea, annexed in 2014.

At the Istanbul negotiations, the Ukrainian delegation proposed to put aside the issue of Donbass and Crimea for 15 years to reach an initial agreement, agreeing to ensure the neutrality of the country but with security guarantees from external powers to avoid new aggressions .

Russia, for its part, has accepted that Ukraine can join the European Union, an important concession. The maximalist demands for “denazification” and “demilitarization” which had been the pretext for this war have therefore been forgotten. In doing so, Putin implicitly acknowledges that he will not achieve his initial goal and sketches a step back.

These positions would be encouraging if only they corresponded to a decrease in tension. Instead, Mariupol’s ordeal is the tragic symbol of what appears to be a negotiation but is unfortunately still very far from a peace agreement.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)

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