For about ten months, at each stage of the Ukrainian conflict, the same scenario has recurred. Westerners balk at the idea of delivering weapons to Ukraine that would give Kiev an edge, for fear of going too far with Russia. But in the end, after assessing the risks, they decide to proceed.
This is what happened with the anti-aircraft defense, which Ukraine needs to strengthen in the face of attacks by Russian missiles and drones on the country’s cities and infrastructure.
The United States will give the green light to the delivery of Patriot missile batteries – the most effective air defense equipment. Until now Washington had hesitated because Russia considered the Patriots as a red line not to be crossed.
growing imbalance
On November 30, former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev declared that NATO would become a “legitimate target” – in his own words – in the event of the Patriots’ surrender. The United States has decided to ignore the threat.
There is a growing imbalance between Ukraine’s armaments and Russia’s. It is paradoxical, because at the beginning of the conflict the superpower with a modern army was Russia, not Ukraine.
But Kiev’s western allies have supplied, step by step, ever more sophisticated weapons: long-range artillery, missile launchers that allow precise strikes behind Russian lines, the first air defense weapons and now the Patriots, which once installed they could create a protective dome over Ukrainian cities.
Russia does not have access to these kinds of advanced weapons. China does not supply them, because they contain US components and this would expose Beijing to sanctions. Moscow therefore depends on Iranian drones, unsophisticated, and on its own missiles belonging to another generation.
The war of the cities launched by Vladimir Putin two months ago, in the aftermath of the explosion of the Kerch bridge linking Crimea to Russia, has hurt Ukraine, creating permanent insecurity but above all destroying infrastructure and leaving millions of Ukrainians in the dark and in the cold.
For two months Volodymir Zelenskyj has been asking the allies for an “air shield”, which is now about to arrive. On December 14, the anti-aircraft defense said it had shot down all 13 missiles fired at the capital.
With the Patriots, Ukraine would considerably strengthen the defense of its cities, but it will take time to install these sophisticated devices and train the personnel who will have to operate them. In the meantime, Kiev can count on other instruments, including the medium-range Franco-Italian Samp/T batteries. But even in this case there is a problem: there are only a few pieces available. It’s the eternal stock buster.
In any case, Ukraine knows that between the logistical and financial support promised earlier this week at the Paris conference and the fact that the allies have taken a further step in delivering weapons, the country can hope to overcome the winter. The only unknown factor concerns the Russian response to the new situation.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)