June 21, 2022 4:11 pm
Forget the gaudy Arab dictators in medal-laden military attire or dressed in flashy tribal attire. Bashar al Assad, president of Syria, is the image of modesty. He usually wears no jewelry, no wedding rings, and no flashy watch. His favorite suit of hers is a simple black suit with tie. His talk is a cure for insomnia. Yet, in a region of kleptocratic rulers, few have looted the coffers of their country so thoroughly.
The lives of his people should have improved after the defeat of the Islamic State group in 2019 and the regain’s reconquest of large portions of territory controlled by the rebels. Instead it got worse. Electricity is more often absent than functioning. The population of the areas under the regime’s control has halved since the rebellion began in 2011: 90 percent of them live in poverty and many survive thanks to foreign aid and remittances from abroad.
The currency lost 90 percent of its value. Officials blame Western sanctions, Covid-19, the collapse of banks in neighboring Lebanon and, more recently, the war in Ukraine, a major source of grain. But the main cause is Assad’s cannibalization of the country. “He rules like a mafia boss,” says a confidant who recently defected.
The changing of the guard
By copying the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Assad decided a few years ago to shake the foundations of a monolithic establishment. Senior businessmen were summoned to the Sheraton Damascus hotel. Some of those who refused to hand over assets or shares were held for further interrogation in Section 251, one of the detention centers of his security service in Damascus, known for torture. Rami Makhlouf, Assad’s first cousin and the regime’s main intermediary, was placed under house arrest. Many of Syria’s richest men, bankers, merchants and a winemaker, have fled the country. Hundreds of businesses have been seized or closed.
According to a report by Harmoon, a study center based in Istanbul, a host of more dubious tycoons have taken their place. Many are warlords who launder the proceeds of smuggling. Rather than investing in manufacturing companies that the regime could seize, they prefer to own upscale restaurants. One recently opened in Damascus, in front of which Lamborghini and Tesla are parked. The racket is widespread. Thousands of people are said to have gone through section 251 for not paying the protection money.
Assad’s income
Assad also enriches himself with gas, petrol and electricity. While ordinary Syrians are often in the dark and have no fuel to travel, the president supplies the power broker Lebanese, who pay in dollars. Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese politico-military movement, receives the fuel as a reward for fighting for the Assad regime. Another source of illicit income for the presidency is the sale of passports to the many Syrians who are desperate to leave. Agents charge a thousand dollars to process requests quickly or to have applicants’ names removed from blacklists at checkpoints.
The most profitable source of income for Assad is drugs. According to the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, fifteen factories within its strongholds produce captagon, an amphetamine. Another twenty smaller companies produce the substance near the borders with Lebanon and Jordan. Some have diversified their production, focusing on methamphetamine crystals. The network of these operations is so vast that the Syrians call it niqabeh, or union. Bedouin once smuggled pills into sheep stomachs and vegetable trucks. Today illicit drugs are exported in armored vehicles protected by drones and heavy weapons.
Assad’s drug trafficking allows him to secure the loyalty of the Alawites, the Muslim religious minority that forms the basis of his regime
Assad rejects allegations of involvement. But the comrades who recently turned against him claim that the niqabeh it operates from the finance department of the presidency, under the supervision of an aide described as the “Syrian Pablo Escobar”, named after the now deceased Colombian drug lord. This shadowy figure is said to coordinate ship transport off the Mediterranean coast, using his private security company to escort convoys. He is also the one who summons the businessmen on behalf of Assad, asking them to contribute to the so-called fund for the martyrs of Syria, another source of considerable income. Merchants are said to arrive at the presidential palace with suitcases of cash.
The Alawite front
Some argue that Assad’s drug trafficking allows him to secure the loyalty of his fellow Alawites, the Muslim religious minority that has long formed the basis of his regime. Many Syrians of the Sunni majority were driven from their lands, then handed over to the Alawites, who at first applauded the regime’s brutal repression. But ultimately few have benefited from Assad’s demographic engineering.
Recently, many Alawites have criticized Assad’s rapprochement with Sunni leaders, especially in the United Arab Emirates, perceiving it as a betrayal. They also did not like his decision to release hundreds of Sunni detainees during the recent fasting month of Ramadan. They are also angered by cuts in subsidies for basic food and fuel. Protests inside and outside the country have multiplied. “The groups that fought for Assad turned against him,” says an Alawite defector. A new law on cybercrime punishes anyone “fomenting a negative public opinion” with several years in prison.
With his Russian ally distracted by the war in Ukraine, Assad is less certain about his own security. On 10 June, Israeli missiles hit the main Damascus airport, which some say will be out of service for weeks. According to the Israeli press, Assad’s buildings could be the next target. Syrians fear being drawn into war as an ally of Iran.
But general impoverishment has advantages for Assad. Seeing the collapse of the country, fewer foreigners are willing to fight for what is left of it. And even if the Syrian currency collapses, members of Assad’s inner circle who own dollars are still able to thrive. Furthermore, the majority of the population appears on their knees and unable to react. “As bad as things can get,” says a UN official, “the Syrians are too tired to go back to war.”
(Translation by Federico Ferrone)
This article was published in The Economist. Internazionale has a weekly newsletter covering what’s going on in the Middle East. Sign up here.