Home » The Taliban regime is increasingly unstable – Salman Rafi Sheikh

The Taliban regime is increasingly unstable – Salman Rafi Sheikh

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The Taliban regime is increasingly unstable – Salman Rafi Sheikh

04 maggio 2022 09:00

When in August last year the Taliban, loaded with weapons and ammunition, conquered Kabul with the promise of “peace, stability and unity”, few believed that the return to power of the armed group could mark the start of a transition from war to peacetime stability.

Eight months have passed. The Taliban regime is by no means stable, neither politically nor economically nor from a geostrategic point of view. The difficult economic situation and the risk of widespread famine are only one side of the problem.

Emerging power centers within Afghanistan pose an explicit challenge to the Taliban’s claim to be the only truly representative party or power holder in the country. And those rival political forces are speaking quite explosively.

The cells of the Islamic State group
On April 29, an explosion in Kabul in a mosque belonging to a Sunni minority group – the zikri – killed at least fifty people. On April 28, a bomb exploded in a minibus carrying Shiite Muslims to the northern city of Mazar-e Sharif killed at least nine people.

The attack on the minibus in which the Shiites were traveling occurred after the Taliban leaders had declared the capture of one of the strategists of the Islamic State-province of Khorasan (Is-K) group, responsible for a previous attack in Mazar-e Sharif against a Shiite mosque, in which at least 31 people had died.

These attacks belie the claims of the Taliban leaders who claim to have eliminated enemy terrorist groups such as IS-K, which would no longer pose a threat, and to have offered protection to minorities.

The Islamic State-K group has had full operational freedom in Afghanistan, setting up cells in almost all provinces

It is now clear that their claims were wrong, but it cannot be denied that the persistent success of IS-K is directly linked to the Taliban regime for several reasons.

First, some extremist groups within the Taliban – including the Haqqani, who control the interior ministry, who are tasked with addressing these threats and whose links with the IS-K group date back to joint attacks on the forces Americans, NATOs and Afghans – are reluctant to take action against the terrorist group.

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It was these same connections with Is-K that caused the Taliban, despite the apparent ideological rivalry with the group, to free several hundred fighters after August, allowing the organization to grow its ranks from two thousand to four thousand. units, according to an estimate drawn up in January 2022 by the United Nations. In this way, Is-K has had full operational freedom in Afghanistan, where it has created cells in almost all provinces.

Armed political opposition
Second, beyond the Taliban’s inability and unwillingness to oppose Is-K, the group’s growing strength is also linked to political opposition to the Taliban. As emerged from some recent reports, many men from groups and militias previously trained by the United States, the CIA and NATO have long since joined IS-K not only because they are persecuted by the Taliban but also because in the eyes of these fighters the ‘Is-K is the most effective way to oppose Taliban rule. Following the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” rule, these former militiamen are effectively carrying out the mission for which they were trained: to hunt down and kill the Taliban.

While some of those who joined IS-K can be included in the category of ideological sympathizers, many new adherents come from more secular resistance circles, including those of the National Resistance Front (NRF), based in northern Afghanistan and led by Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh, the former vice president of Afghanistan.

While the NRF attacks on the Taliban are the only ones known in the recent past, some new groups have emerged in recent months – the Afghanistan Freedom Front and the National Islamic and Liberation Movement of Afghanistan. Afghanistan – who have promised to resist the Taliban regime alone or in alliance with the NRF.

Massoud’s NRF has turned the spotlight on the Taliban’s inability to protect Afghanistan’s sovereignty

A recent report by the Institute for the study of war shows that these groups define the Taliban as a “terrorist group” and “occupiers”, with the aim of “liberating” Afghanistan. They were also recently joined by General Sami Sadat who led the Afghan security forces in Helmand province before being appointed head of the Afghan special forces in the last days of the deposed Ashraf Ghani regime. Sadat claims he is in contact with the NRF and other groups that he believes have enough popular support to nurture and nurture an organic resistance movement against the Taliban. In what appears to be a role reversal, these groups are using the same tactics – particularly guerilla warfare – used by the Taliban against US, NATO and Afghanistan forces.

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The crucial problem of Pakistan
In light of these developments, the Taliban have begun to deploy more gunmen in northern Afghanistan to track down resistance. Most analysts in Afghanistan are therefore convinced that a new season of conflict is looming for the war-torn country already on its knees due to a very serious economic crisis. For these resistance groups, however, the fact that the Taliban failed to curb the economic crisis and the threat of famine represent more opportunity than harm, facilitating the recruitment of new fighters. Furthermore, since the Taliban are not recognized by the international community, these groups are unlikely to be condemned for their actions against a regime that has not yet been legitimized by elections.

In addition to the challenge posed by the resistance, another crucial problem for the Taliban is the growing move away from Pakistan, which many observers said played an underground role last August as US troops withdrew.

In a recent operation motivated, according to Pakistani officials, by the Taliban’s inability and unwillingness to counter the Tahreek-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group, which opposes Pakistan and has its bases in eastern Afghanistan, some attacks airplanes operated by the Pakistani armed forces killed at least 47 people in the two provinces of Khost and Kunar, in the eastern area of ​​the country. The TTP group is also known as the “Pakistan Taliban” and has strong ties to the Kabul Taliban.

These air strikes are a clear indication of tensions between Islamabad and Kabul, the NRF used the attacks to turn the spotlight on the growing weakness of Taliban rule and their inability to protect Afghanistan’s sovereignty. While condemning the attack on Pakistan, the NRF stated that “the occupying Taliban regime is the main cause of foreign aggression in Afghanistan. It is necessary to get rid of the occupiers and their acolytes in Afghanistan ”. As has also emerged from some recent reports, there have been meetings between US officials and NRF leaders in Tajikistan to discuss the prospects and possibilities of this resistance movement.

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It is not yet clear whether Washington will offer help, but these meetings must be framed against the background of the Russian and Chinese willingness to strengthen the Taliban against these groups. However, Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan seem to indicate that Islamabad is unwilling to support the Taliban against the resistance, regardless of the positions of Moscow and Beijing.

According to a report by the Institute for the study of war, the head of the Pakistani secret services (Isi) Nadeem Anjum has recently met with members of these groups, including Ahmad Massoud. The report states that Anjum would have expressed a desire to work with resistance groups in exchange for the recognition of the Durand Line, Pakistan’s disputed border with Afghanistan that Islamabad recently rushed to close with a fence for security reasons. , thus cutting an important route of legal and illegal cross-border trafficking for the Taliban.

Direct and indirect challenges for the Taliban are slowly but surely emerging, both from within and without. The group’s ability to maintain a grip on the country is strained, a test that could prove fatal in the long run if the NRF or other groups are given the right support.

(Translation by Giusy Muzzopappa)

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